RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained a NEUTRAL call on the auto and auto parts sector as the research house feels the industry lacks catalysts to maintain its sales momentum in 2025.
In a research note on Dec 26, the research house stated that the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) recorded a total industry volume (TIV) of 67,500 units for November bringing the year-to-date (YTD) TIV to 731,000 units.
"Although there's an increase of 1.4% year-on-year (YoY) for the YTD figure compared to 11M23's numbers, the TIV recorded for November has weakened by 3% month-on-month (MoM) with major carmakers charting softer numbers, led by Toyota which saw a 6.7% MoM decline in sales volume.
"This was followed by Perodua (5.7%) and Proton (5%). Honda, however, recorded a 12.7% MoM increase," RHB Research said.
The research house said the total production volume (TPV) fell 14% MoM and 10% YoY to 60,900 units in November, bringing the 11M24 TPV to 724,800.
"The MoM decline was seen across the major marques with Proton leading the way with 21%, followed by Perodua (9%), Toyota (19%) and Honda (7%)," RHB Research added.
Nevertheless, the research house said generally, the performance of the auto sector players in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24) met the house's expectations as both Sime Darby Motors Bhd (SDM) and MBM Resources Bhd met its forecasts.
"SDM started its FY25 (June) with an 11% YoY rise in 1Q25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ.
"However, results from Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd (TCM) and Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto) fell short of its estimates due to TCM concluding its 9M24 with widening losses while BAuto's 1H25 earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery," RHB said, adding that for 2025, it is forecasting a TIV of 730,000 units, a drop of 8% YoY from its 2024 projection of 790,000 units.
The decline is due to the research house anticipating a softer TIV as the high base effect kicks in and it does not see any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to be maintained at the current elevated levels.
"We think the decline will mainly be contributed by the non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition due to new names that have entered the fray.
"Additionally, some car buyers may postpone their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques which would also destabilise the non-national segment," the research house said.
On that note, RHB Research remains cautious in its outlook for 2025 given the ongoing price competition between non-national marques while softening order backlogs also indicate toned-down expectations.
The research house's top picks are BAuto for its attractive valuation and higher-than-sector-average dividend yield and SDM for its broad electric vehicle line-up which is well positioned for the RON95 rationalisation.
印度興業投資銀行有限公司（RhB Research）對汽車和汽車零部件行業保持中立看法，因爲該研究機構認爲該行業缺乏在2025年保持銷售勢頭的催化劑。
該研究機構在12月26日的一份研究報告中表示，馬來西亞汽車協會（MAA）記錄的11月份行業總銷量（TIV）爲67,500輛，使年初至今（YTD）的TIV達到73.1萬輛。
“儘管與 11M23 相比，年初至今的數字同比增長了1.4％，但11月份的TIV同比（MoM）下降了3％，主要汽車製造商的數字有所疲軟，豐田的銷量環比下降了6.7％。
「其次是Perodua（5.7％）和Proton（5％）。但是，本田的環比增長了12.7％。」 RhB Research說。
該研究機構表示，11月總產量（TPV）環比下降14％，同比下降10％，至60,900輛，使11M24 TPV降至724,800輛。
RhB Research補充說：「各大品牌均出現環比下滑，其中寶騰以21％領先，其次是Perodua（9％）、豐田（19％）和本田（7％）。」
儘管如此，該研究機構總體上表示，由於森達比汽車有限公司（SDM）和mBM Resources Bhd均達到了預期，汽車行業參與者在2024年第三季度（3Q24）的表現符合該公司的預期。
“sdM在25財年（6月）開始時，25年第一季度的收益同比增長了11％，這主要是由UMW的數字整合到其利潤線中造成的。MBM 的凈利潤環比有所改善。
RhB表示：「但是，新創汽車控股有限公司（TCM）和Bermaz Auto Bhd（bAuto）的業績未達到預期，原因是中藥在9M24結束時虧損擴大，而由於銷售交付疲軟，bAuto的25上半年收益同比下降42％。」 他補充說，到2025年，預計TIV爲73萬輛，同比下降8％ 單位。
下降的原因是該研究機構預計，隨着高基數效應的出現，TIV將走軟，而且它認爲2025年汽車銷量維持在目前的高水平沒有任何令人信服的因素。
“我們認爲，這種下降將主要是由非國有品牌造成的，由於新名字加入競爭，這些品牌繼續面臨日益激烈的競爭。
該研究機構表示：「此外，一些購車者可能會推遲購買，因爲預計現有和新的非國有品牌將進一步降價，這也將破壞非國有市場的穩定。」
就此而言，鑑於非國有品牌之間持續的價格競爭，RhB Research對2025年的前景仍然持謹慎態度，而訂單積壓的疲軟也表明預期有所減弱。
該研究機構的首選是 bAuto，因爲其估值誘人，股息收益率高於行業平均水平，以及其廣泛的電動汽車陣容的 SdM，爲 RON95 合理化做好了充分準備。
