Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600171) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?
Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600171) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?
Shanghai Belling (SHSE:600171) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 95% over the last three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Shanghai Belling's ROE today.
上海貝嶺(SHSE:600171)在股市上表現出色,股票在過去三個月中上漲了顯著的95%。然而,我們決定關注公司的基本面,似乎沒有清晰的信號表明公司的財務健康狀況。特別是,我們今天將關注上海貝嶺的ROE。
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
ROE或股本回報率是一個有用的工具,用於評估公司如何有效地利用其股東投入的資金來產生回報。換句話說,它是一個衡量公司股東所提供資本的回報率的盈利能力比率。
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
如何計算股本回報率?
The formula for ROE is:
ROE的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
股東權益回報率 = 凈利潤(來自持續運營)÷ 股東權益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Shanghai Belling is:
所以,根據上述公式,上海貝嶺的ROE爲:
7.3% = CN¥309m ÷ CN¥4.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
7.3% = CN¥30900萬 ÷ CN¥43億(基於截至2024年9月的過去十二個月)。
The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.07 in profit.
「回報」是年度利潤。這意味着,對於每1元人民幣的股東權益,公司產生了0.07元人民幣的利潤。
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
ROE爲什麼對凈利潤增長很重要?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.
到目前爲止,我們已經了解到ROE衡量的是一家公司產生利潤的效率。根據公司選擇再投資或「保留」的利潤比例,我們能夠評估公司未來產生利潤的能力。一般來說,在其他條件相同的情況下,具有高股本回報率和利潤保留的公司,其增長率高於不具備這些特徵的公司。
Shanghai Belling's Earnings Growth And 7.3% ROE
上海貝嶺的盈利增長和7.3%的ROE
At first glance, Shanghai Belling's ROE doesn't look very promising. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.4%. Having said that, Shanghai Belling's five year net income decline rate was 16%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.
乍一看,上海貝嶺的ROE似乎不太樂觀。然而,仔細研究發現,公司ROE與行業平均水平6.4%相似。儘管如此,上海貝嶺過去五年的凈利潤下降率爲16%。請記住,公司ROE起初就有點低。因此,這可能是導致盈利增長停滯的原因。
That being said, we compared Shanghai Belling's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 14% in the same 5-year period.
也就是說,我們將上海貝嶺的表現與行業進行了比較,當我們發現公司雖然縮減了盈利,但行業在同一5年期間的盈利增長率爲14%時,感到擔憂。
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Shanghai Belling is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
對公司附加價值的基礎在很大程度上與其盈利增長有關。投資者接下來需要判斷的是預期的盈利增長或其缺乏是否已經體現在股票價格中。這將幫助他們確定股票的未來是看起來樂觀還是悲觀。一個預期盈利增長的良好指標是市盈率,市盈率決定了市場願意爲一隻股票支付的價格,基於其盈利前景。因此,您可能想檢查一下上海貝嶺的市盈率是在其行業中高還是低。
Is Shanghai Belling Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
上海貝嶺是否有效地利用了其利潤?
When we piece together Shanghai Belling's low three-year median payout ratio of 21% (where it is retaining 79% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.
當我們拼湊出上海貝嶺低達21%的三年中位分紅支付比率(它保留了79%的利潤),這是在過去三年期間計算得出的,我們對缺乏增長感到困惑。通常情況下,當一家公司保留大部分盈利時,應該不會出現這樣的情況。因此,在這方面可能有其他解釋。例如,該公司的業務可能正在惡化。
Additionally, Shanghai Belling has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth.
此外,上海貝嶺至少在過去十年裏支付了分紅,這意味着公司的管理層決心支付分紅,即使這意味着幾乎沒有盈利增長。
Conclusion
結論
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Shanghai Belling can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 3 risks we have identified for Shanghai Belling.
總體來看,我們認爲上海貝嶺的表現可以有很多財報解讀。儘管它似乎保留了大部分利潤,但考慮到低ROE,投資者可能並沒有從所有再投資中受益。低收益增長表明我們的理論是正確的。總的來說,我們會對這家公司保持謹慎態度,這樣做的一種方式是查看業務的風險狀況。我們的風險儀表將包含我們爲上海貝嶺識別的三個風險。
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這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。