Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
受巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李路坦言:『最大投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。』 當你審視一家公司有多大風險時,考慮公司的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時往往涉及到債務。我們注意到,Ciena公司(紐交所:CIEN)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否使公司變得有風險。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時會變得危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般來說,債務只有在公司無法輕易償還時才成爲真正的問題,要麼通過籌集資金,要麼通過自身的自由現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果公司無法償還債權人,就可能破產。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,從而永久稀釋股東權益,僅僅是爲了支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務在企業中可以是一個重要的工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。當我們考慮一家公司的債務使用時,我們首先將現金和債務一起考慮。
What Is Ciena's Net Debt?
Ciena的淨債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ciena had US$1.54b in debt in November 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$1.25b in cash, and so its net debt is US$293.6m.
下面的圖表,您可以點擊以獲取更詳細信息,顯示Ciena在2024年11月的債務爲15.4億美金;與前一年相差不大。 然而,它也有12.5億美金的現金,因此其淨債務爲29360萬美金。
How Healthy Is Ciena's Balance Sheet?
Ciena的資產負債表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Ciena had liabilities of US$999.8m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.83b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.25b as well as receivables valued at US$1.08b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$491.5m.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,Ciena在一年內到期的負債爲99980萬美元,而在此之後到期的負債爲18.3億美元。抵消這些義務,Ciena擁有現金12.5億美元以及在12個月內到期的應收款10.8億美元。因此,它的負債比現金和(短期)應收款的總和多出49150萬美元。
Given Ciena has a humongous market capitalization of US$12.3b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
考慮到Ciena有一個巨大的市場資本爲123億美元,很難相信這些負債會構成太大的威脅。但負債足夠多,我們確實建議股東繼續關注資產負債表。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
爲了評估一家公司的債務與其收益的關係,我們計算其淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及息稅前利潤(EBIT)與利息費用的比率(即利息覆蓋率)。通過這種方式,我們考慮了債務的絕對數量和所支付的利率。
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.90 and interest cover of 5.5 times, it seems to us that Ciena is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly, Ciena's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 50% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ciena's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
從其淨債務與EBITDA的比率0.90和利息覆蓋率5.5倍來看,我們認爲Ciena可能在合理地使用債務。但利息支付顯然足以讓我們思考它的債務是否可負擔。重要的是,Ciena的EBIT在過去十二個月中驟然下降了50%。如果這種下降持續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食者大會上出售鵝肝困難得多。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到了不少債務的知識。但未來的收益,比任何事情,都將判斷Ciena在未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Ciena recorded free cash flow of 24% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
但我們的最終考慮也很重要,因爲公司不能用紙面利潤支付債務;它需要真金白銀。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。看最近三年的數據顯示,Ciena的自由現金流佔EBIT的24%,這比我們預期的要弱。這種現金轉化率的低下使得處理債務變得更加困難。
Our View
我們的觀點
Ciena's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its net debt to EBITDA is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Ciena is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Ciena has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Ciena在增長EBIT方面的掙扎讓我們開始懷疑其資產負債表的強度,但我們考慮的其他數據點相對令人欣慰。 例如,其淨債務與EBITDA的比率相對較強。 從上述所有角度來看,我們認爲Ciena由於其債務而成爲一種有些風險的投資。這未必是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提升股本回報,但這值得注意。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但最終,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表以外的風險。例如 - Ciena有1個警告信號,我們認爲您應該意識到。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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