Top Glove Confident Of A Turnaround In 2025
Top Glove Confident Of A Turnaround In 2025
Top Glove's 1QFY25 core net loss of MYR5.8m was in line says Maybank IB, after the glove maker released its latest earnings report. The house noted that the first quarter plant utilisation rate (UR) improved to 66% (from 60% in 4QFY24), but blended ASP declined by -2% QoQ.
頂級手套在2025財年第一季度的核心淨虧損爲580萬馬幣，梅巴銀行表示這一結果符合預期，因爲手套製造商發佈了最新的收益報告。該行指出，第一季度的產能利用率（UR）提高到66%（相比於2024財年第四季度的60%），但綜合平均售價（ASP）環比下降了2%。
Maybank said Top Glove said it is confident of a turnaround in FY25E on better sales volume and ASP, the house however is maintaining its FY25-27E earnings forecast and MYR1.08 TP on 1.8x CY26E P/B. It also reiterates a SELL noting that the positives have been more than priced in.
梅巴銀行表示，頂級手套對2025財年的銷售量和平均售價更好而充滿信心，但該行仍維持其2025-2027財年的盈利預測以及基於2026財年市凈率1.8倍的目標價1.08馬幣。它還重申了賣出觀點，指出積極因素已經被充分反映在價格中。
1QFY25: lower core net loss
Excluding MYR11.3m in non-operational net positives (such as fair value gain, unrealized forex gain, and PPE write-off), TOPG's 1QFY25 core net loss was MYR5.8m, versus our and consensus FY25E net profit forecasts of MYR124m and MYR139m, respectively. 1QFY25 core net loss was due to realised forex losses and the partial recognition of higher ASPs during the
preceding quarter (Sep-Nov 2024). However, we expect stronger earnings ahead on higher plant UR and ASPs from increased US orders.
1QFY25：核心淨虧損減少
排除1130萬馬來西亞林吉特的非運營性淨利好（如公允價值收益、未實現外匯收益和固定資產減值），TOPG的1QFY25核心淨虧損爲580萬馬來西亞林吉特，而我們和市場共識的FY25E凈利潤預測分別爲12400萬馬來西亞林吉特和13900萬馬來西亞林吉特。1QFY25的核心淨虧損是由於實現的外匯虧損和對更高ASP部分的確認，
上一個季度（2024年9月至11月）。然而，我們預計隨着美國訂單的增加，未來將會有更強的盈利，主要來自更高的工廠產能利用率和平均售價。
Key highlights from 1QFY25 results concall
1QFY25 sales volume rose 16% QoQ, while ASP declined 2% QoQ to ~USD19.3/k pcs. TOPG expects ASP to rise to USD21-22/k pcs from Mar 2025 (vs. our FY25E ASP assumption of USD22/k pcs) as pre-higher US tariff stocks deplete. Management projects sales to grow as orders from US shift to Malaysia due to higher tariffs on China-made gloves from Jan 2025.
TOPG plans to increase capacity to 70b pcs p.a. (from 64b presently) by reopening idle plants, with current UR at 70%. It also aims to expand into Vietnam, producing both natural rubber and nitrile gloves.
2025財年第一季度業績會議的主要亮點
2025財年第一季度的成交量環比增長了16%，而平均售價環比下降了2%，約爲19.3美元/千隻。頂級手套預計從2025年3月起，平均售價將上升至21-22美元/千隻（相比我們2025財年預計的22美元/千隻），因爲預先儲備的高關稅美國庫存將耗盡。管理層預計，隨着美國訂單轉向馬來西亞，銷售將增長，因爲自2025年1月以來，中國製造的手套關稅增加。
頂級手套計劃通過重啓閒置工廠，將產能提高到每年700億隻（目前爲640億隻），目前的利用率爲70%。它還計劃擴展到越南，生產天然橡膠和丁腈手套。
Uncertainty remains on demand from non-US markets
Maybank IB has maintained its earnings forecasts but remains concerned on the glove maker's exposure to the non-US markets, which accounted for 82% of its 1QFY25 sales volume (-2 ppt QoQ, compared to pre-pandemic level of 76%). The research house also expects Top Glove's Chinese counterparts to divert their US sales to these markets starting Jan 2025.
來自非美國市場的需求仍然存在不確定性
馬來亞銀行保持其盈利預測，但仍對手套製造商在非美國市場的暴露表示擔憂，這些市場佔其2025財年第一季度成交量的82%（較上季度下降2個百分點，相比疫情前水平的76%）。研究機構還預計，頂級手套的中國競爭對手將在2025年1月開始將其美國銷售轉向這些市場。
The house believes for TOPG, regaining previous US customers or securing new ones may take up to six months due to the customers' audit process. Elsewhere, TOPG's proposed 1-for-20 bonus issue of up to 406m warrants (exercise price: MYR1.27/sh) is slated to be listed by Feb 2025
該機構認爲，頂級手套恢復之前的美國客戶或獲得新客戶可能需要六個月的時間，因爲客戶的審計流程。此外，頂級手套提議的1對20的紅利發行（最多40600萬Warrants，行使價格：1.27馬幣/股）預計將在2025年2月上市。
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