Is Shanghai Jahwa United (SHSE:600315) A Risky Investment?
Is Shanghai Jahwa United (SHSE:600315) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Shanghai Jahwa United Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600315) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍華德·馬克斯很好地指出,投資者應該擔心的不是股票價格的波動,而是「永久性損失的可能性,這是我所擔心的風險……這是我認識的每一個實際投資者都在擔心的。」所以,聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產相關——在評估一家公司的風險時是一個非常重要的因素。與其他許多公司一樣,上海家化股份有限公司(SHSE:600315)也利用債務。但更重要的問題是:這種債務造成了多少風險?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務是幫助企業成長的工具,但如果一個企業無法償還其債權人,那麼它就處於他們的掌控之中。在最壞的情況下,如果無法償還債務,該公司可能會破產。雖然這種情況並不多見,但我們常常會看到負債公司的股東被永久性稀釋,因爲債權人迫使他們以低價籌集資金。當然,許多公司利用債務來資助增長,而沒有任何負面後果。當我們考察債務水平時,首先需要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Shanghai Jahwa United's Net Debt?
上海家化的淨債務是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, Shanghai Jahwa United had CN¥651.5m of debt, up from CN¥531.2m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥3.26b in cash, so it actually has CN¥2.61b net cash.
正如您在下面看到的,截至2024年9月底,上海家化的債務爲65150萬人民幣,比一年前的53120萬人民幣有所增加。單擊圖像以查看更多詳細信息。然而,其資產負債表顯示它持有32.6億人民幣的現金,因此其實際淨現金爲26.1億人民幣。
How Healthy Is Shanghai Jahwa United's Balance Sheet?
上海家化的資產負債表健康嗎?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shanghai Jahwa United had liabilities of CN¥2.86b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥645.4m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.26b in cash and CN¥916.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥679.1m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看到,上海家化的流動負債爲28.6億人民幣,長期負債爲64540萬人民幣。與此相對,它有32.6億人民幣的現金和91680萬人民幣的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的流動資產比總負債多67910萬人民幣。
This surplus suggests that Shanghai Jahwa United has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Simply put, the fact that Shanghai Jahwa United has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
這項盈餘表明上海家化的資產負債表較爲保守,而且很可能能夠輕鬆償還債務。簡單來說,上海家化擁有的現金超過債務,這無疑是它能夠安全管理債務的良好跡象。
It is just as well that Shanghai Jahwa United's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 44% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shanghai Jahwa United's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
值得欣慰的是,上海家化的負擔並不重,因爲其EBIT在過去一年下降了44%。在償還債務方面,收入下降對健康的幫助就像甜飲料對你的健康一樣無益。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學習到大部分關於債務的知識。但是,未來的收益,尤爲重要,將判斷上海家化未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Shanghai Jahwa United has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the most recent three years, Shanghai Jahwa United recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最後,儘管稅務局可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。雖然上海家化的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍然值得關注其將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們理解它是在快速增加(或減少)現金餘額。在最近三年中,上海家化記錄的自由現金流佔其EBIT的57%,這是正常水平,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅。這個冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要的時候減少債務。
Summing Up
總結
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shanghai Jahwa United has net cash of CN¥2.61b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we don't have any problem with Shanghai Jahwa United's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai Jahwa United that you should be aware of.
雖然我們同情那些對債務感到擔憂的投資者,但你應該記住,上海家化的淨現金爲26.1億人民幣,並且其流動資產超過負債。 所以我們並不擔心上海家化使用債務。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是開始的地方。 但是最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。 例如,我們已經發現了 3個需要你注意的上海家化的警告信號。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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