Investors Three-year Losses Continue as Transfar Zhilian (SZSE:002010) Dips a Further 5.2% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
Investors Three-year Losses Continue as Transfar Zhilian (SZSE:002010) Dips a Further 5.2% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Transfar Zhilian Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002010) shareholders, since the share price is down 49% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 15%. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 8.5% in a month.
對於許多投資者來說,挑選股票的主要目的是獲得高於整體市場的回報。但是,如果你嘗試挑選股票,你就有可能獲得低於市場的回報。不幸的是,對於長揸 傳化智聯(SZSE:002010)股票的股東來說,情況正是如此,因爲在過去三年中,股價下跌了49%,遠低於市場大約15%的下跌。最近,股價在一個月內又下跌了8.5%。
With the stock having lost 5.2% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
考慮到這隻股票在過去一週損失了5.2%,值得關注一下業務表現,查看是否存在任何紅旗。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
在他的文章《Graham和Doddsville的超級投資者》中,禾倫·巴菲特描述了股價並不總是理性反映一家企業的價值。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法如何變化是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價變動進行比較。
During the three years that the share price fell, Transfar Zhilian's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 37% each year. In comparison the 20% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.
在股價下跌的三年中, 傳化智聯 的每股收益(EPS)每年下降了37%。相比之下,20%的複合年股價下降並沒有 EPS 的下跌那麼糟糕。因此,目前市場可能並不太擔心 EPS 這一數字——或者市場可能已經把部分下跌價格計入了。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下圖顯示了EPS隨時間變化的情況(點擊圖像以顯示確切值)。
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
在買入或賣出股票之前,我們總是建議仔細審查歷史增長趨勢,詳情請見這裏。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Transfar Zhilian the TSR over the last 3 years was -45%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報是非常重要的。總股東回報(TSR)包含了任何分拆或折扣融資的價值,以及任何分紅,前提是分紅被再投資。可以公平地說,TSR爲支付分紅的股票提供了更完整的視角。我們注意到,在過去三年中,傳化智聯的TSR爲-45%,這比上述提及的股價回報要好。公司支付的分紅因此提升了總股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
Transfar Zhilian shareholders are down 0.7% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 10%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 5% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Transfar Zhilian (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
傳化智聯的股東在今年下跌了0.7%(即使考慮到分紅),但市場本身上漲了10%。即使是優秀股票的股價有時也會下跌,但在對業務的基本指標表現出更大的關注之前,我們希望看到改善。 不幸的是,長期股東的損失更嚴重,因爲在過去五年中損失了5%。我們需要看到關鍵指標的持續改善,才能激發更多的熱情。 雖然考慮市場條件對股價的不同影響是值得的,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如風險。每家公司都有風險,我們發現了傳化智聯的4個警告信號(其中1個是重要的!),你應該了解。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
對於喜歡尋找贏家投資的人來說,這份關於最近有內部人士購買的被低估公司的免費名單,可能正是你所需要的。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。