Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
With expectations of stable economic growth momentum, steady bank margins and relatively benign credit costs, Maybank IB projects a stable operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively in 2025E, for the banks under its coverage. ROAEs are projected to average 10.5% and dividend yields of >5% provide support. Top picks include AMMB, CIMB and PBK.
由於預期經濟增長勢頭穩定，銀行利潤率穩定以及相對溫和的信貸成本，Maybank Ib預計其覆蓋的銀行在2025E的營業利潤和凈利潤分別將實現5.9%的穩定增長。ROAE預計平均爲10.5%，且超過5%的股息收益率提供支持。重點推薦包括AMMb、CIMb和PBk。
Operating and net profit growth of 5.9%
Against the group's GDP growth expectations of 4.9% in 2025E, the house forecasts domestic loan growth of 5.5%, led by a pick-up in business loans. Deposit competition is expected to be more rational, and with expectations of no OPR cuts, Maybank IB expects NIMs to be stable. NOII growth is likely to taper off amid lower forex and bond market volatility, especially
since US Fed rate cuts are expected to be more gradual. Credit costs, nevertheless, are expected to remain fairly benign amid sustained economic momentum and the availability of management overlay buffers at most banks. It also forecasts aggregate 2025E operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively, as well as an average ROE of 10.5%.
營業利潤和凈利潤增長5.9%
根據該集團對2025E年4.9% GDP增長的預期，預計國內貸款增長爲5.5%，主要由商業貸款的回升推動。存款競爭預計將更加理性，且預計不會減息，Maybank Ib預計NIM將保持穩定。受外匯和債券市場波動性降低的影響，NOII增長可能會減緩，尤其是
由於預計美國聯邦儲備局的減息將更加漸進。然而，考慮到經濟持續增長且大多數銀行可用的管理緩衝，信貸成本預計仍保持相對溫和。它還預計2025E年整體營業利潤和凈利潤將分別增長5.9%，ROE平均值爲10.5%。
Valuations still undemanding
Banking sector PERs (on a one-year forward rolling basis) have been on the decline since hitting a peak of 14x in July 2019, just before the pandemic. Valuations recovered somewhat in 2024, and average about 10.1x currently. Even so, valuations are still below the long-term (since Jan 2009) mean of 11.3x. We find that all banking stocks are currently trading below their historical mean PER valuations, with HLBK and PBK at around -1SD to mean.
估值仍然不高
銀行業的市盈率（基於滾動的一年前瞻性）自2019年7月達到14倍的峯值以來一直在下降，那時正值疫情發生之前。估值在2024年略有恢復，目前平均約爲10.1倍。儘管如此，估值仍低於自2009年1月以來的長期均值11.3倍。我們發現，所有銀行股票目前的交易均低於其歷史平均市盈率估值，HLBk和PBk的估值約爲平均水平的-1標準差。
Top 3 picks – AMMB, CIMB & PBK
The house has a BUY call on ABMB, AMMB, CIMB, HLBK, HLFG and PBK but the top 3 picks would be AMMB, CIMB and PBK. AMMB's focus on proactive funding cost management and business banking operations should contribute to growth momentum, as it strives for higher dividend payouts. CIMB's operations in Indonesia and Singapore are strong contributors, while a turnaround of CIMB Thai would enhance earnings. Public Bank is well-managed and its MYR1.5b management overlays should keep credit costs low. The acquisition of LPI Capital enhances non-interest income and Maybank IB thinks that concerns over a share overhang are overblown.
重點推薦前三名 – AMMb，CIMb及PBK
該公司對ABMb、AMMb、CIMb、HLBk、HLFG和PBk給予買入評級，但重點推薦的前三名爲AMMb、CIMb和PBk。AMMB注重積極的資金成本管理和商業銀行業務將有助於增長勢頭，因爲其力求提高股息支付率。CIMB在印度尼西亞和新加坡的業務是強有力的貢獻者，而CIMB Thai的扭轉將提升收益。大衆銀行的管理良好，其管理緩衝資金達15億MYR，應該能保持信貸成本低。對LPI Capital的收購提升了非利息收入，Maybank Ib認爲對股份稀釋的擔憂被誇大了。