Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Sheds US$90m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years
Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Sheds US$90m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years
If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 71% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 47% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 28% in the last three months.
如果你喜歡投資股票,難免會買到一些虧損的股票。然而,科爾士公司(紐交所:KSS)的長期股東在過去三年中經歷了不幸的境遇。遺憾的是,他們面臨了71%的股價下跌。在過去一年中,股價下跌了47%,這最近的消息並未帶來安慰。股價在過去三個月下跌了28%,降幅加速。
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
鑑於過去一週對股東來說很艱難,讓我們調查一下基本面,看看我們能學到什麼。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是反映基礎業務的表現。一種有缺陷但合理的評估公司情緒變化的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
During five years of share price growth, Kohl's moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
在五年的股價增長中,科爾士從虧損轉向盈利。這通常被視爲積極的消息,因此我們對股價下跌感到驚訝。因此,查看其他指標以理解股價變化是值得的。
Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. However, the weak share price might be related to the fact revenue has been disappearing at a rate of 4.8% each year, over three years. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).
考慮到分紅派息的健康狀況,我們懷疑市場對此並不憂慮。然而,股價疲軟可能與營業收入在過去三年中以每年4.8%的速度消失有關。這可能讓一些投資者對長期增長潛力(或缺乏增長潛力)感到擔憂。
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
您可以在下面看到盈利和營業收入隨時間的變化(通過點擊圖片發現確切值)。
Kohl's is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
科爾士是一隻知名的股票,受到了大量分析師的關注,這表明對未來增長有一定的可見性。考慮到我們有相當數量的分析師預測,查看這個展示共識估計的免費圖表可能是值得的。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kohl's the TSR over the last 3 years was -64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量每股價格回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。每股價格回報僅反映每股價格的變化,而TSR則包括分紅的價值(假設它們被再投資)以及任何折扣資本籌集或拆分的收益。可以公平地說,TSR爲支付分紅的股票提供了更完整的畫面。我們注意到,科爾士在過去3年的TSR爲-64%,這比上述的每股價格回報要好。而且,不用猜測,分紅支付很大程度上解釋了這種差異!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
Investors in Kohl's had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Kohl's is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...
Kohl's的投資者經歷了艱難的一年,整體虧損41%(包括分紅),而市場的增幅約爲26%。即使是優質股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在對一項業務產生濃厚興趣之前,看到其基本指標的改善。不幸的是,去年的表現可能表明還有未解決的挑戰,因爲其年化虧損超過過去五年的10%更爲嚴重。我們意識到巴倫·羅斯柴爾德曾說過投資者應該「在街頭流血時買入」,但我們提醒投資者首先要確保自己是在購買高質量的業務。我發現長時間觀察股價作爲業務表現的代理是非常有趣的。但要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。即便如此,請注意Kohl's在我們的投資分析中顯示出2個警告信號,其中1個是重要的...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
當然,你可能會通過其他地方尋找一個絕佳的投資機會。所以請查看這個我們預計將增長每股收益的公司免費列表。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了當前在美國交易所上市股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。