US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.After much of 2024 marked by contraction, there are now brighter signs emerging from the tunnel of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
在2024年大部分時間內經歷了收縮後，美國製造業部門現在出現了更明亮的跡象。
Data revealed Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November and surpassing economists' expectations of 48.4%.
週五，供應管理協會發佈的數據表明，12月製造業採購經理人指數升至49.3%，高於11月的48.4%，也超過了經濟學家預期的48.4%。
The outcome marks the strongest reading since April 2024 and second consecutive month of improvement in the PMI, a trend not seen since September 2023.
這一結果標誌着自2024年4月以來最強的讀數，也是PMI連續第二個月改善，這一趨勢自2023年9月以來未見。
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.
然而，該指數仍然低於區分擴張與收縮的關鍵50%閾值，反映出連續第九個月——以及過去27個月中的26個月處於收縮區間。
Key Manufacturing Metrics Show Encouraging Trends
關鍵製造業指標顯示出鼓舞人心的趨勢
While the headline PMI remains in contraction, some sub-indices suggest that momentum may be turning:
雖然總體PMI仍處於收縮之中，但一些分項指數表明勢頭可能正在轉變：
- New Orders Index: Climbed to 52.5% in December, up from 50.4% in November. This is the second straight month in expansion territory after seven months of contraction.
- Production Index: Jumped to 50.3%, up significantly from November's 46.8%, marking its return to expansion after six months of contraction.
- Prices Index: Rose from 50.3% in November to 52.5%, indicating increasing prices paid by manufacturers.
- Backlog of Orders Index: Improved from 41.8% in November to 45.9%, though still below 50%.
- Employment Index: Fell to 45.3% from November's 48.1%, reflecting continued de-staffing in the sector.
- 新訂單指數：12月攀升至52.5%，高於11月的50.4%。這是繼七個月收縮後的連續第二個月進入擴張區間。
- 生產指數：躍升至50.3%，顯著高於11月的46.8%，標誌着在經歷六個月的收縮後回歸擴張。
- 價格指數：從11月份的50.3%上升至52.5%，顯示出製造商支付的價格在上升。
- 訂單積壓指數：從11月份的41.8%改善至45.9%，儘管仍低於50%。
- 就業指數：從11月份的48.1%下降至45.3%，反映出該板塊持續減少員工。
"U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in December, but at a slower rate compared to November. Demand showed signs of improving, while output stabilized and inputs stayed accommodative," Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, wrote in the report.
"美國製造業活動在12月份再次收縮，但相比11月份的速度有所放緩。需求出現改善跡象，產出穩定，投入保持寬鬆，" ISm製造業業務調查委員會主席Timothy Fiore在報告中寫道。
Fiore also highlighted that de-staffing trends may soon end, and the percentage of gross domestic product contracting in manufacturing has decreased from 66% in November to 52% in December — a sign that the slowdown is becoming less broad-based.
Fiore還指出，減少員工的趨勢可能很快會結束，製造業在國內生產總值中收縮的百分比已從11月份的66%降至12月份的52%——這表明放緩的趨勢正變得不那麼廣泛。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The U.S. dollar rebounded against major currencies, supported by the improving economic data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), a proxy for dollar strength, trimmed its session losses to 0.1%.
美國美元兌主要貨幣反彈，得益於經濟數據的改善。景順Db美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所：UUP）作爲美元強度的替代品，將其當日損失縮減至0.1%。
The greenback has now rallied 9% since late September, significantly outperforming the broader stock market, which is up only 3% during the same period.
自9月底以來，美元已反彈9%，顯著超過更廣泛的股市，在同一時期其上漲僅爲3%。
The S&P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — initially rose but gave back gains, weighed down by higher Treasury yields.
標普500指數——由SPDR 標普500指數ETF Trust（紐交所：SPY）跟蹤——最初上漲但隨後回吐漲幅，受到較高國債收益率的壓制。
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 4.80%, reversing overnight declines, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) slipped 0.2%, holding near nine-month lows.
30年期國債收益率上升至4.80%，扭轉了隔夜的下跌，而20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares（納斯達克：TLT）下跌了0.2%，保持在九個月低位附近。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
