Here's Why Singapore Post (SGX:S08) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Here's Why Singapore Post (SGX:S08) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Singapore Post Limited (SGX:S08) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
禾倫·巴菲特曾 famously 說過,『波動性遠非風險的同義詞。』 在審視一家公司有多大風險時,自然要考慮其資產負債表,因爲債務通常與企業崩潰相關聯。我們可以看到新加坡郵政有限公司 (新加坡交易所:S08) 確實在其業務中使用了債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否使公司變得風險更大。
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般來說,債務只有在公司無法輕易償還時才會成爲真正的問題,要麼通過籌集資金,要麼通過自己的現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。然而,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以便宜的價格發行股票,永久性稀釋股東,只爲增強其資產負債表。當然,許多公司使用債務來資助增長,而沒有任何負面影響。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,我們首先將現金和債務一起看待。
How Much Debt Does Singapore Post Carry?
新加坡郵政的債務有多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Singapore Post had S$895.9m of debt, an increase on S$611.7m, over one year. However, it does have S$436.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about S$459.1m.
您可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示截至2024年9月,新加坡郵政的債務爲89590萬新元,比61170萬新元增加了一年。然而,它在現金方面有43670萬新元的抵消,使淨債務約爲45910萬新元。
How Strong Is Singapore Post's Balance Sheet?
新加坡郵政的資產負債表有多強?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Singapore Post had liabilities of S$575.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of S$1.18b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had S$436.7m in cash and S$242.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total S$1.07b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我們從最近的資產負債表可以看到,新加坡郵政的負債爲57500萬新元,屬於一年內到期的負債,而有11.8億新元的負債則在更長時間內到期。爲此,它有43670萬新元的現金和24210萬新元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出10.7億新元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of S$1.25b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Singapore Post's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
這個赤字相對於12.5億新元的市場資本化來說是相當顯著的,因此確實建議股東關注新加坡郵政的債務使用情況。如果其貸款方要求其改善資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
爲了評估一家公司的債務相對於其收益的情況,我們計算其淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及息稅利潤(EBIT)與利息費用(即利息覆蓋)的比率。這種方法的優點在於我們同時考慮到債務的絕對數額(使用淨債務與EBITDA的比率)和與該債務相關的實際利息支出(使用利息覆蓋率)。
Singapore Post has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.0 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.6 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On a slightly more positive note, Singapore Post grew its EBIT at 18% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Singapore Post can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
新加坡郵政的債務與EBITDA比率爲3.0,其EBIT覆蓋利息支出3.6倍。綜合來看,這意味着雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它能夠處理當前的槓桿。稍微積極的一點是,新加坡郵政在過去一年中將其EBIT增長了18%,進一步增強了其管理債務的能力。毫無疑問,我們通過資產負債表了解債務的最多。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定新加坡郵政是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,也許你會覺得這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Singapore Post produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 63% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤是不夠的。因此,值得查看一下這部分EBIT有多少是由自由現金流支撐的。在過去三年中,新加坡郵政產生了穩健的自由現金流,佔其EBIT的63%,這大約是我們所期望的。這一自由現金流使公司在適當的時候能夠較好地償還債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
While Singapore Post's level of total liabilities does give us pause, its EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow suggest it can stay on top of its debt load. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Singapore Post is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with Singapore Post , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
雖然新加坡郵政的總負債水平讓我們感到擔憂,但它的EBIT增長率和EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的能力表明它能夠承擔債務負擔。 從上述所有角度來看,我們認爲新加坡郵政因其債務而成爲一種風險投資。這並不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報,但這確實是需要注意的。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解債務最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表以外的風險。 我們已識別出新加坡郵政的兩個警告信號,理解它們應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
無論最終結果如何,有時候更容易關注那些根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費獲取一份淨債務爲零的成長股列表。
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這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。