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We Think Guangdong Sanhe Pile (SZSE:003037) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Guangdong Sanhe Pile (SZSE:003037) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲廣東三和堆(深圳證券交易所代碼:003037)在其債務上承擔了一些風險。
Simply Wall St ·  01/05 17:01

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Guangdong Sanhe Pile Co., Ltd. (SZSE:003037) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李錄(查理·芒格支持的)曾說過:'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。' 當我們思考一家公司有多風險時,我們總是喜歡查看其債務的使用情況,因爲債務過重可能導致毀滅。我們可以看到,廣東三和樁業股份有限公司(SZSE:003037)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但這筆債務對股東來說是否是個問題呢?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務帶來了什麼風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還貸方,那麼它就是任其擺佈。資本主義的一個重要過程是『創造性破壞』,失敗的企業會被銀行無情地清算。然而,通常(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司不得不以廉價股價稀釋股東,僅僅是爲了將債務控制住。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價資本,特別是在它替代了一個能夠以高回報率重新投資的公司的稀釋。考慮一家公司的債務水平時,第一步是將現金和債務一起考慮。

What Is Guangdong Sanhe Pile's Debt?

廣東三和樁業的債務是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, Guangdong Sanhe Pile had CN¥2.09b of debt, up from CN¥1.80b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.19b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥895.3m.

正如下方所示,截至2024年9月底,廣東三和樁業的債務爲CN¥20.9億,較一年前的CN¥18億有所增加。點擊圖片查看更多細節。然而,由於其現金儲備爲CN¥11.9億,因此其淨債務減少,約爲CN¥89530萬。

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SZSE:003037 Debt to Equity History January 6th 2025
SZSE:003037 債務與股本歷史 2025年1月6日

A Look At Guangdong Sanhe Pile's Liabilities

廣東三和樁的負債情況

The latest balance sheet data shows that Guangdong Sanhe Pile had liabilities of CN¥3.44b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥712.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.19b and CN¥2.18b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥782.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,廣東三和樁的負債爲34.4億人民幣,1年內到期的負債爲71220萬人民幣。另一方面,它的現金爲11.9億人民幣,1年內到期的應收賬款爲21.8億人民幣。因此,負債總額比其現金和短期應收款的總和多出78230萬人民幣。

Of course, Guangdong Sanhe Pile has a market capitalization of CN¥4.03b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.

當然,廣東三和樁的市值爲40.3億人民幣,因此這些負債可能是可控的。然而,我們確實認爲值得關注其資產負債表的強度,因爲它可能會隨着時間而變化。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

爲了評估一家公司的債務與其收益的關係,我們計算其淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及息稅前利潤(EBIT)與利息費用的比率(即利息覆蓋率)。通過這種方式,我們考慮了債務的絕對數量和所支付的利率。

While we wouldn't worry about Guangdong Sanhe Pile's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5, we think its super-low interest cover of 2.3 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Importantly, Guangdong Sanhe Pile's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 41% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Guangdong Sanhe Pile will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

雖然我們對廣東三和樁的淨債務與EBITDA比率爲2.5並不擔憂,但我們認爲其超低的利息覆蓋比例爲2.3倍是高槓杆的一個跡象。似乎該業務產生了大量的折舊和攤銷費用,因此它的債務負擔可能比最初看起來的要重,因爲EBITDA可以說是一個較爲寬鬆的盈利衡量標準。因此,股東們應該意識到,利息費用似乎最近對業務產生了真正的影響。重要的是,廣東三和樁的EBIT在過去的十二個月中暴跌了41%。如果這種下降持續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食主義大會上出售鵝肝更困難。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域。但你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲廣東三和樁需要盈利來支付這些債務。因此,如果你想更多地了解其盈利情況,可能值得查看一下其長期盈利趨勢的圖表。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Guangdong Sanhe Pile burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

最後,儘管稅務部門可能熱愛會計利潤,但貸方只接受貨真價實的現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的多少。在過去三年裏,廣東三和樁消耗了大量現金。雖然這可能是增長支出的結果,但這確實使債務風險大大增加。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, Guangdong Sanhe Pile's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that Guangdong Sanhe Pile's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Guangdong Sanhe Pile (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

從表面上看,廣東三和樁將EBIT轉換爲自由現金流讓我們對該股票感到謹慎,其EBIT增長率也沒有比一年中最繁忙的夜晚一家空餐廳更具吸引力。但至少其總負債水平還不錯。總體而言,我們認爲廣東三和樁的資產負債表對於業務來說確實存在相當大的風險。因此,我們對這隻股票的謹慎程度幾乎與一隻飢餓的小貓對掉入主人魚塘的警惕度相當:一被咬,二受驚,正如他們所說。分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的地方。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們已經確定了4個廣東三和樁的警示信號(其中一個讓我們並不感到舒服),你應該注意這些。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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