Short-Seller Jim Chanos Warns Of Overbuilding Data Center Capacity, Compares AI Boom To Fiber Optic Bubble Of 2000s
Short-Seller Jim Chanos Warns Of Overbuilding Data Center Capacity, Compares AI Boom To Fiber Optic Bubble Of 2000s
Amazon is simultaneously developing its Trainium 2 AI chip to compete with Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos is warning of potential overbuilding in the data center sector, drawing parallels to the 2000 fiber optic bubble, even as tech giants Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google announce massive expansion plans.
著名的做空者吉姆·查諾斯警告稱數據中心行業存在過度建設的潛在風險，將其與2000年的光纖泡沫進行了類比，即便科技巨頭微軟CORP（納斯達克：MSFT）、亞馬遜（NASDAQ：AMZN）和Alphabet Inc.（納斯達克：GOOG）（NASDAQ：GOOGL）谷歌也宣佈了大規模擴張計劃。
What Happened: In a recent exchange on X, Chanos challenged industry optimism about data center growth, particularly amid the artificial intelligence boom. "I can still hear the fiber optic cable guys saying demand was 'infinite' in 2000, because internet traffic was doubling every quarter (it wasn't)," wrote Chanos, referencing his experience teaching about the WorldCom case.
發生了什麼：在最近的一次X平台交流中，查諾斯質疑了對數據中心增長的行業樂觀情緒，特別是在人工智能繁榮的背景下。他寫道：「我仍然能聽到光纖電纜行業的人說2000年的需求是『無限的』，因爲Internet Plus-related流量每個季度都在翻倍（實際上並沒有）」，查諾斯提到他的世界通信案例教學經歷。
The warning comes as Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025, with over half allocated to U.S. projects.
這一警告恰逢微軟計劃在2025財年花費800億美元用於AI支持的數據中心建設，其中超過一半分配給美國項目。
Amazon is simultaneously developing its Trainium 2 AI chip to compete with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) in the $100 billion AI chip market, while Google has committed to significant data center investments globally, including an $850 million facility in Uruguay.
亞馬遜同時正在開發其Trainium 2 AI芯片，以在1000億美元的AI芯片市場中與英偉達CORP（納斯達克：NVDA）競爭，而谷歌也承諾在全球進行重大數據中心投資，包括在烏拉圭建設一個85000萬美元的設施。
I can still hear the fiber optic cable guys saying demand was "infinite" in 2000, because internet traffic was doubling every quarter(it wasn't).
— James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) January 5, 2025
我仍然能聽到光纖電纜行業的人說2000年的需求是「無限的」，因爲Internet Plus-related流量每個季度都在翻倍（實際上並沒有）。
——吉姆·查諾斯（@RealJimChanos） 2025年1月5日
Internet usage was roughly doubling every year, not every quarter. So 2x annually, not 16x. See Andrew Odlyzko's fabulous papers on this subject. I teach this as part of the WorldCom (they were making the quarterly claim) case in my course.
— James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) January 5, 2025
Internet Plus-related使用率大概每年翻倍，而不是每個季度。所以是每年2倍，而不是每季度16倍。請參閱安德魯·奧德利茲科在這個主題上的精彩論文。我在我的課程中將其作爲世界通信案例的一部分（他們當時聲稱是季度翻倍）。
——吉姆·查諾斯（@RealJimChanos） 2025年1月5日
Chanos, who gained prominence for predicting Enron's collapse and recently announced the closure of his hedge funds, noted that while industry experts cite various constraints on data center development, "the spending keeps increasing."
查諾斯因預測安然公司倒閉而聲名顯赫，最近宣佈關閉他的對沖基金，他指出，儘管行業專家提到數據中心發展的各種限制，但「支出仍在增加。」
He referenced research showing that historical internet usage doubled annually rather than quarterly, suggesting a potential disconnect between infrastructure buildout and actual demand growth.
他提到的研究顯示，歷史Internet Plus-related使用量是每年翻倍，而不是每季度翻倍，這暗示了基礎設施建設與實際需求增長之間的潛在脫節。
Why It Matters: Brad Johnson, a market observer, acknowledged potential overspending in the current cycle but pointed to unique constraints in data center development, including power availability and connectivity requirements. However, Chanos remained skeptical, emphasizing that despite these supposed limitations, capital expenditure continues to rise.
爲什麼這很重要：市場觀察者布拉德·約翰遜承認在當前週期可能存在過度支出的情況，但指出數據中心發展的獨特限制，包括電力可用性和連接要求。然而，查諾斯對此持懷疑態度，強調儘管存在這些所謂的限制，資本支出仍在上升。
Everyone mentions the "constraints" but the spending keeps increasing.
— James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) January 5, 2025
每個人都提到「限制」，但支出仍在增加。
——吉姆·查諾斯（@RealJimChanos） 2025年1月5日
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圖片來自Shutterstock。
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