Janet Yellen's Short-Term Debt Strategy Sparks Warnings For Trump Administration: 'Your Costs Explode And Buyers Could Balk,' Says Expert
Janet Yellen's Short-Term Debt Strategy Sparks Warnings For Trump Administration: 'Your Costs Explode And Buyers Could Balk,' Says Expert
"Traders will demand much higher rates to issue long-term debt, which will blow out interest rates on credit cards, mortgages etc. That means recession or worse," Gasparino wrote on X, formerly Twitter.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's strategy of relying heavily on short-term debt financing could create significant market turbulence as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, according to financial experts and market data.
美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫依賴短期債務融資的策略可能會在當選總統特朗普準備就職時造成重大市場動盪，金融專家和市場數據表示。
What Happened: Charles Gasparino, New York Post columnist, warned that Yellen's approach of rolling over short-term debt instead of issuing longer-dated bonds has "masked the severity" of the federal deficit problem while potentially setting up a crisis for the incoming administration.
發生了什麼：紐約郵報專欄作家查爾斯·加斯帕裏諾警告說，耶倫通過滾動短期債務而不是發行長期債券的方法"掩蓋了"聯邦赤字問題的嚴重性，同時可能爲即將上任的政府設置了危機。
The Treasury Department under Yellen has shifted approximately 30% of government borrowing to short-term securities, up from 15% in 2023, according to analysis from Bear Traps Report. This strategy helped keep interest rates artificially low during Biden's term but could backfire as these debts need refinancing at higher rates.
根據Bear Traps Report的分析，耶倫領導下的財政部已將約30%的政府借款轉向短期證券，較2023年的15%有所上升。這一策略在拜登任期內幫助維持了利率的人爲低位，但隨着這些債務需要以更高的利率進行再融資，可能會適得其反。
"Traders will demand much higher rates to issue long-term debt, which will blow out interest rates on credit cards, mortgages etc. That means recession or worse," Gasparino wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
加斯帕裏諾在X（前推特）上寫道："交易員將要求更高的利率來發行長期債務，這將導致信用卡、抵押貸款等的利率飆升。這意味着衰退或更糟。"
Side note to my column; a few weeks ago I wrote about the other ticking time bomb–Yellen papering the deficit by rolling over short term debt . It's worth noting that the severity of the debt problem has been masked because Yellen didn't issue 10-year...
— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) January 5, 2025
關於我的專欄的附註；幾周前我寫過另一個定時炸彈——耶倫通過滾動短期債務來填補赤字。值得注意的是，由於耶倫沒有發行10年期債券，債務問題的嚴重性一直被掩蓋。
— 查爾斯·加斯帕裏諾 (@CGasparino) 2025年1月5日
Market reactions are already visible. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) saw record outflows of $5.5 billion in December, while 30-year Treasury yields surged 40 basis points to 4.80%, reaching their highest level in over a year.
市場反應已顯現。20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares（NASDAQ:TLT）在12月份錄得了55億的創紀錄流出，而30年期國債收益率飆升了40個點子，達到了4.80%，爲一年以來的最高水平。
Why It Matters: Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said "Bond vigilantes are sending a loud warning message" about fiscal concerns under the incoming administration. The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.6% in September to 4.6% in late December, a 25% increase that could significantly impact stock market performance.
這很重要：耶爾丹研究公司總統埃德·耶爾丹表示，"債券警示者正在發出響亮的警告信息"，關於即將上任的政府的財政問題。10年期國債收益率從9月份的3.6%躍升至12月底的4.6%，漲幅達到25%，這可能會顯著影響股市表現。
The situation presents an immediate challenge for Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who will need to address both the rolling short-term debt and a federal budget deficit that has contributed to $36 trillion in total government debt.
這一情況對特朗普提名的財政部長候選人斯科特·貝森提出了直接挑戰，他需要解決滾動的短期債務和導致36萬億總政府債務的聯邦預算赤字。
"Your costs explode and buyers could balk," Gasparino cautioned, highlighting the potential double threat of higher refinancing costs and reduced market appetite for U.S. debt securities.
「你的成本會暴漲，買家可能會退縮，」蓋斯帕裏諾警告道，強調了再融資成本上升和美國債務證券市場需求下降的雙重威脅。
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Image via World Bank / Brandon Payne
圖片來源：世界銀行 / 布蘭登·佩恩
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免責聲明：本內容部分使用人工智能工具生成，並經Benzinga編輯審核發佈。
