JPMorgan has reset the valuation for Viking Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:VKTX) and Structure Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:GPCR).
Analyst Hardik Parikh cites several reasons for recovery, including pathways for strategic partnership with pharma, some clinical trial data points and additional clarity on the incoming administration's policies on GLP-1 access.
The analyst writes that Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics are attractive pure-play options for investing in the T2D/obesity market opportunity overall.
The note continues, saying that Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics remain attractive partners for pharmaceutical companies looking to enter the T2D/obesity market relatively quickly.
It expects a reasonable case to make that many pharmaceutical companies, in addition to Merck & Co. Inc (NYSE:MRK), could be active in the space. Hence, Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics still have abundant pathways to strategic partnerships.
Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics can help address growth gaps for pharma over time, analyst Parikh says, and sees an apparent disconnect on valuation abates over time.
The analyst sees the competitive bar for VK2735 primarily unchanged, at least in the near term, after Novo Nordisk A/S' (NYSE:NVO) phase 3 Redefine-1 data showed weight loss from cagriSema that is on par with Eli Lilly And Co.'s (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound.
The Street broadly expected the Redefine-1 trial of CagriSema to show ~25% weight loss, raising the benchmark injectables in development.
Viking Therapeutics highlighted new clinical data from its VK2735 obesity program in two poster presentations at ObesityWeek 2024.
Cohorts receiving VK2735 demonstrated dose-dependent reductions in mean body weight from baseline, ranging up to 8.2%.
JPMorgan suggests that VK2735's weight-loss effectiveness in its upcoming Phase 3 trial (starting in early 2025) could slightly surpass Zepbound's ~22% reduction at 72 weeks and remain competitive with CagriSema.
However, the firm believes Eli Lilly's retatrutide may set the highest standard for efficacy, potentially achieving weight loss in the high 20% range, based on Phase 3 data expected in 2026. While this creates a challenging benchmark for VK2735, its tolerability could offer an edge over retatrutide, which is expected to have slightly more side effects than Zepbound.
Last month, Structure Therapeutics selected ACCG-2671 as its lead oral small molecule amylin receptor agonist for obesity and related diseases. The compound is expected to be in Phase 1 clinical development by the end of 2025.
In November, Structure Therapeutics dosed the first patient in Phase 2b ACCESS trial of GSBR-1290 obese or overweight patients with weight-related comorbidity.
VKTX, GCPR Price Actions: Viking Therapeutics stock is down 0.56% at $42.65, and Structure Therapeutics stock is down 0.25% at $27.51 at publication Monday.
摩根大通重置了Viking Therapeutics Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:VKTX)和Structure Therapeutics Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:GPCR)的估值。
分析師哈迪克·帕裏克列舉了幾個復甦原因,包括與製藥公司建立戰略伙伴關係的途徑、一些臨牀試驗數據點以及對即將上任的政府關於 GLP-1 准入的政策的進一步澄清。
這位分析師寫道,Viking Therapeutics和Structure Therapeutics是投資T2D/肥胖市場總體機會的有吸引力的純粹選擇。
該報告繼續說,對於希望相對較快地進入T2D/肥胖市場的製藥公司來說,Viking Therapeutics和Structure Therapeutics仍然是有吸引力的合作伙伴。
它預計,除了默沙東之外,還有這麼多製藥公司會有合理的理由。Inc(紐約證券交易所代碼:MRK)可能會活躍在該領域。因此,Viking Therapeutics和Structure Therapeutics仍然有豐富的戰略合作伙伴關係途徑。
分析師帕裏克說,Viking Therapeutics和Structure Therapeutics可以幫助解決製藥公司長期以來的增長缺口,並認爲隨着時間的推移,估值明顯的脫節會減弱。
這位分析師認爲,至少在短期內,VK2735 的競爭門檻基本保持不變,此前諾和諾德A/S(紐約證券交易所代碼:NVO)的第三階段Redefine-1數據顯示,CagriSEMA的減肥效果與禮來公司相當。”s(紐約證券交易所代碼:LLY)Zepbound。
華爾街普遍預計,CagriSema的Redefine-1試驗將顯示體重減輕約25%,從而提高正在開發的基準注射劑。
Viking Therapeutics 在 2024 年肥胖週刊的兩場海報展示中重點介紹了其 VK2735 肥胖項目的新臨牀數據。
接受 VK2735 的隊列顯示平均體重與基線相比有所降低,幅度高達 8.2%。
摩根大通表示,在即將到來的第三階段試驗(2025年初開始)中,VK2735 的減肥效果可能會略高於Zepbound在72周內的減肥效果約22%,並且與CagriSema相比仍具有競爭力。
但是,該公司認爲,根據預計於2026年發佈的第三階段數據,禮來公司的瑞他魯肽可能會設定最高的療效標準,有可能在20%的高範圍內實現體重減輕。儘管這爲 VK2735 創造了具有挑戰性的基準,但其耐受性可能比瑞他魯肽更具優勢,預計瑞他曲肽的副作用將略多於Zepbound。
上個月,Structure Therapeutics選擇 ACCG-2671 作爲其治療肥胖和相關疾病的主要口服小分子澱粉樣蛋白受體激動劑。該化合物預計將在2025年底進入1期臨牀開發。
11月,Structure Therapeutics在針對具有體重相關合並症的 GSBR-1290 肥胖或超重患者的20期ACCESS試驗中爲第一位患者給藥。
VKTX,GCPR價格走勢:週一公佈時,Viking Therapeutics股價下跌0.56%,至42.65美元,Structure Therapeutics股價下跌0.25%,至27.51美元。