Optimum-MSGN Standoff Could Pressure MSG Networks' Finances: Analyst
Optimum-MSGN Standoff Could Pressure MSG Networks' Finances: Analyst
Altice USA said this "all or nothing" stance would have increased cable bills, forcing most customers to pay for content they don't watch.JP Morgan analyst David Karnovsky shared views on the impact of the Optimum-MSGN carriage battle on Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE:SPHR) and Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS).
摩根大通的分析師大衛·卡諾夫斯基分享了對Optimum-MSGN傳輸戰對Sphere Entertainment Co. (紐交所:SPHR) 和麥迪森運動（Madison Square Garden Sports CORP. (紐交所:MSGS)的影響的看法。
As per a press release dated January 1 from Optimum, a brand of Altice USA, Inc. (NYSE:ATUS), the carriage agreement between Optimum and MSG Networks expired on December 31, 2024.
根據2023年1月1日Optimum（Altice USA, Inc. (紐交所:ATUS) 的品牌）發佈的新聞稿，Optimum與MSG網絡之間的傳輸協議於2024年12月31日到期。
Altice USA said, despite weeks of negotiations, MSG Networks insisted on high programming fees and mandated that its channels be available to most video subscribers.
Altice USA表示，儘管進行了數週的談判，但MSG網絡堅持較高的節目費用，並要求其頻道對大多數視頻訂閱用戶數可用。
Altice USA said this "all or nothing" stance would have increased cable bills, forcing most customers to pay for content they don't watch.
Altice USA表示，這種 "全有或全無 "的態度將增加有線電視賬單，使大多數客戶不得不爲他們不觀看的內容付費。
Optimum (likely Sphere Entertainment's top customer) accounts for 14% of SPHR's FY24 revenue and 27% of MSG Networks' revenue, says the analyst.
分析師表示，Optimum（可能是Sphere Entertainment的主要客戶）佔SPHR的2024財年營業收入的14%，佔MSG網絡收入的27%。
For Madison Square Garden Sports, which owns the Knicks and Rangers, Karnovsky writes that the bankruptcy for the RSN could reduce local rights fees and related cash flow.
對於擁有尼克斯和遊騎兵的麥迪森運動，卡諾夫斯基寫道，RSN的破產可能會降低本地版權費用和相關現金流。
The analyst considers it unlikely that the largest MVPD in a competitive video market would permanently forgo content from four major sports teams, but the possibility of a loss of carriage cannot be completely dismissed. The analyst highlights MSGN has long not been available on DISH, while Comcast dropped the channels in 2021.
分析師認爲，在競爭激烈的視頻市場中，最大的視頻多渠道視頻提供商（MVPD）不太可能永久放棄四支主要體育隊伍的內容，但無法完全排除失去傳輸的可能性。分析師強調，MSGN長時間未在DISH上提供，而康卡斯特在2021年取消了這些頻道。
Karnovsky estimates MSG Networks' FY25 adjusted operating income to be $113 million, but losing the Optimum carriage would erase segment profits. Even a renegotiated deal at lower rates would further pressure MSG Networks' financials.
卡諾夫斯基估計，MSG網絡的2025財年調整後的營業收入爲11300萬，但失去Optimum的傳輸將抹去該部門的利潤。即使在較低的費率下重新談判的協議也將進一步給MSG網絡的財務帶來壓力。
Meanwhile, the analyst says that for Sphere Entertainment, the loss of Optimum carriage could be a net positive, potentially pushing MSG Networks toward a full default scenario and clearing over $700 million in non-recourse debt from the company's balance sheet—boosting its valuation.
與此同時，分析師表示，對於Sphere Entertainment，Optimum的撤回可能是一個淨利好，可能會促使麥迪森運動網絡走向全面違約的情景，並清除公司資產負債表上超過70000萬的無追索權債務——提高其估值。
The analyst maintained an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $240 on Madison Square Garden Sports.
分析師維持了對麥迪森運動的超配評級，價格預測爲240美元。
Meanwhile, Karnovsky reiterated the price forecast of $57 and an Overweight rating on Sphere Entertainment.
與此同時，卡爾諾夫斯基重申了對Sphere Entertainment的價格預測爲57美元，以及超配評級。
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圖片由Shutterstock提供。
