Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit (SZSE:002134) A Risky Investment?
Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit (SZSE:002134) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Tianjin Printronics Circuit Corporation (SZSE:002134) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
傳奇基金經理李錄(查理·芒格支持的人)曾說過:『最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。』當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡查看其債務的使用情況,因爲過度負債可能導致破產。我們注意到天津普林(SZSE:002134)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。但是,更重要的問題是:這筆債務帶來了多少風險?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時會變得危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般來說,債務只有在公司無法輕鬆償還時才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過融資還是自身的自由現金流。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人,它就可能破產。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以便撐住其資產負債表。然而,通過替代稀釋,債務對於那些需要資本以高收益率投資於增長的企業來說,可以是一種非常好的工具。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先看現金和債務的結合。
What Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit's Debt?
天津普林的債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Tianjin Printronics Circuit had CN¥490.9m of debt, an increase on CN¥76.3m, over one year. However, it does have CN¥130.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥360.4m.
您可以點擊下方的圖形查看歷史數據,但它顯示截至2024年9月,天津普林的債務爲49090萬人民幣,比一年前增加了7630萬人民幣。然而,它有13050萬人民幣的現金來抵消這部分債務,因此淨債務約爲36040萬人民幣。
How Healthy Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit's Balance Sheet?
天津普林的資產負債表健康嗎?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Tianjin Printronics Circuit had liabilities of CN¥717.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥486.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥130.5m and CN¥408.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥664.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
從最新的資產負債表數據來看,我們可以看到天津普林有71740萬人民幣的負債在12個月內到期,和48670萬人民幣的負債在此之後到期。另一方面,它有13050萬人民幣的現金和40860萬人民幣的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款總和多出66490萬人民幣。
Since publicly traded Tianjin Printronics Circuit shares are worth a total of CN¥4.30b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
由於公開交易的天津普林股票總值爲43億人民幣,因此這一負債水平似乎不會構成重大威脅。但負債水平足夠高,我們確實建議股東繼續關注資產負債表。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過看淨債務與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何輕鬆地覆蓋利息費用(利息覆蓋)來衡量一家公司相對於其獲利能力的債務負擔。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了其支付的利率。
Tianjin Printronics Circuit's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.6 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. It is well worth noting that Tianjin Printronics Circuit's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 63% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Tianjin Printronics Circuit will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
天津普林的債務是其EBITDA的3.9倍,EBIT足以覆蓋其利息費用6.6倍。綜合來看,這表明雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以處理當前的槓桿。值得注意的是,天津普林的EBIT在過去12個月中像雨後竹子般迅速增長,增長了63%。這將使管理債務變得更容易。分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是重點。但你不能完全孤立地看待債務,因爲天津普林需要盈利來償還債務。因此,如果你想了解更多關於其盈利情況,查看其長期盈利趨勢的圖表可能會很有價值。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Tianjin Printronics Circuit burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法滿足。因此,值得檢查有多少EBIT是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,天津普林消耗了大量現金。雖然投資者無疑期望在適當時候逆轉這種情況,但這顯然意味着它的債務使用更具風險。
Our View
我們的觀點
Tianjin Printronics Circuit's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Tianjin Printronics Circuit's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Tianjin Printronics Circuit has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
天津普林的EBIt轉化爲自由現金流在此次分析中是一個真正的負面因素,儘管我們考慮的其他因素要好得多。特別是,我們對其EBIt增長率感到眼花繚亂。當我們考慮上述所有因素時,確實對天津普林的債務使用感到有些謹慎。雖然債務在更高潛在回報方面確實有其好處,但我們認爲股東絕對應該考慮債務水平如何使股票變得更加風險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 實際上遠非如此。例如 - 天津普林有3個警告信號我們認爲你應該了解。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金成長股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。