Singapore Less Exposed to US Tariff Risks
Singapore Less Exposed to US Tariff Risks
Singapore is also the only ASEAN economy with a bilateral free trade agreement in force with the USA. This could, in principle, imply that Singapore could be relatively shielded from tariff risks, Koh said.However, it is vulnerable to negative trade shocks or a US economic downturn.
然而，它容易受到負面交易衝擊或美國經濟衰退的影響。
Singapore's trade balance might be less susceptible to tariff risks expected under US president-elect Donald Trump's second term.
新加坡的貿易平衡可能不那麼容易受到特朗普概念第二任期下預期的關稅風險的影響。
Within the ASEAN-6 countries, Singapore is the only economy that runs a consistent trade deficit against the US. This may render it less susceptible to tariff risk in this regard, according to Jester Koh, associate economist for UOB, and the UOB Global Economics & Markets Research.
在東盟六國中，新加坡是唯一與美國持續出現貿易赤字的經濟體。這可能使其在這方面不那麼容易受到關稅風險的影響，根據大華銀行的助理經濟學家高傑斯特的說法，以及大華銀行的全球經濟與市場研究。
Singapore is also the only ASEAN economy with a bilateral free trade agreement in force with the USA. This could, in principle, imply that Singapore could be relatively shielded from tariff risks, Koh said.
新加坡也是唯一與美國有現行雙邊自由貿易協議的東盟經濟體。這原則上意味着，新加坡可能在關稅風險方面相對受到保護，高傑斯特說。
There is also limited evidence to suggest that Singapore serves as a "conduit" to redirect Chinese exports to the US in a bid to circumvent tariffs, Koh said.
高傑斯特表示，目前也沒有足夠的證據表明新加坡作爲"通道"重新引導中國出口到美國，以規避關稅。
Amongst ASEAN-6 nations, Vietnam, Thailand, and possibly Malaysia could possibly see trade diversion to circumvent tariffs, according to the UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, based on shifts in the share of imports from China and to the US over 2015-2019, and 2020-2024.
在東盟六國中，越南、泰國以及可能的馬來西亞可能會看到爲了規避關稅而進行的貿易轉移，根據大華銀行的全球經濟與市場研究，基於2015-2019年和2020-2024年間從中國和美國的進口份額的變化。
In contrast, trade diversion is less likely in Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia— implying lower risk of direct tariffs in the latter economies.
相比之下，新加坡、菲律賓和印尼的貿易轉移可能性較小——這意味着後者經濟體面臨的直接關稅風險較低。
However, uncertainty still remains as Trump has pulled out from trade agreements before, notably the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and agreement.
然而，仍然存在不確定性，因爲特朗普在之前已經退出了貿易協議，特別是跨太平洋夥伴關係（TPP）談判和協議。
Trump's recent threats to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, for example, could also violate provisions under the USMCA.
特朗普最近威脅對來自加拿大和墨西哥的進口徵收25%的關稅，這可能違反美國-墨西哥-加拿大協定的相關條款。
Amongst ASEAN-6 countries, Indonesia and Malaysia face heightened security and tariff risks, exacerbated by the two countries becoming official BRICS partner countries beginning 1 January 2025.
在東盟六國中，印度尼西亞和馬來西亞面臨日益嚴峻的安防和關稅風險，因這兩個國家將於2025年1月1日成爲正式金磚國家合作伙伴。
Separately, Singapore is one of the countries likely to be most impacted by an economic downturn in the US; and is also amongst ASEAN-6 countries most vulnerable to a China slowdown.
另外，新加坡是最可能受到美國經濟衰退影響的國家之一；並且也是東盟六國中對中國經濟放緩最脆弱的國家之一。
Spillovers of the EU27 recession are likely to affect Singapore as well.
歐盟27國的衰退溢出效應也可能影響新加坡。
"Whilst Singapore may face lower odds of direct tariffs from the US, the Singapore economy is unlikely to be shielded from spillover effects of a negative trade shock given its extensive reliance on trade as a small and open economy," the report said.
"雖然新加坡直接受到美國關稅的幾率較低，但考慮到新加坡作爲一個小型開放經濟體對貿易的廣泛依賴，其經濟可能無法避免負面貿易衝擊的溢出效應，"報告中提到。
