Psychiatric Hospital Operator Acadia Healthcare Earns Upgrade Amid Expected Recovery In 2025
Psychiatric Hospital Operator Acadia Healthcare Earns Upgrade Amid Expected Recovery In 2025
Medicare Advantage (MA) managed care organizations (MCOs) are still facing higher costs, but the funding situation for MA could improve in the first half of 2025, offering a clearer path for profit recovery in 2026 and beyond.KeyBanc Capital Markets writes that Healthcare Services stocks are expected to see significant changes in 2025.
KeyBanc資本市場寫道，預計醫療服務股票將在2025年發生重大變化。
Strong volumes, increased enrollment in health insurance exchanges (HIX) and Medicaid-directed payment programs (DPPs) will likely benefit hospitals.
強勁的交易量、健康保險交易所（HIX）和醫療補助定向支付計劃（DPP）註冊人數的增加可能會使醫院受益。
However, the uncertain policies under Trump may still affect investor confidence.
但是，特朗普領導下的不確定政策仍可能影響投資者的信心。
Medicare Advantage (MA) managed care organizations (MCOs) are still facing higher costs, but the funding situation for MA could improve in the first half of 2025, offering a clearer path for profit recovery in 2026 and beyond.
Medicare Advantage（MA）管理式醫療組織（MCO）仍面臨更高的成本，但併購的資金狀況可能會在2025年上半年有所改善，爲2026年及以後的利潤復甦提供更明確的路徑。
As the industry approaches 2025, KeyBanc analyst Matthew Gillmor says he prefers stocks tied to higher patient volumes that are somewhat protected from policy changes.
隨着該行業臨近2025年，KeyBanc分析師馬修·吉爾摩表示，他更喜歡與患者數量增加掛鉤的股票，這些股票在一定程度上不受政策變化的影響。
The analyst expects patient volumes to stay high due to strong HIX enrollment and ongoing post-COVID trends, which will benefit hospitals' earnings but may limit earnings growth for MCOs.
該分析師預計，由於強勁的HIX入學率和COVID後的持續趨勢，患者數量將保持在較高水平，這將有利於醫院的收入，但可能會限制MCOs的收益增長。
KeyBanc highlights that volume comparisons will be tough and will monitor proprietary data for trend changes.
KeyBanc強調，交易量比較將很艱難，並將監控專有數據以了解趨勢變化。
Healthcare policy will be a key focus in the first half of 2025, with HIX subsidies and Medicaid DPP being important for hospitals and the 2026 MA rate notice as well as Humana Inc's (NYSE:HUM) lawsuit being key for MCOs.
醫療保健政策將成爲2025年上半年的重點，HIX補貼和醫療補助DPP對醫院很重要，2026年的併購利率通知以及Humana Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：HUM）的訴訟是MCO的關鍵。
KeyBanc expects the policy situation for MA MCOs to improve by April, with UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) being the top choice to benefit from this. Additionally, sentiment around behavioral hospitals, particularly Acadia Healthcare Co (NASDAQ:ACHC), is likely at its lowest.
KeyBanc預計，到4月，併購MCO的政策狀況將有所改善，UnitedHealth Group Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：UNH）是從中受益的首選。此外，圍繞行爲醫院，尤其是阿卡迪亞醫療保健公司（納斯達克股票代碼：ACHC）的情緒可能處於最低水平。
KeyBanc has upgraded Acadia Healthcare to Overweight from Sector Weight with a price target of $70, citing meaningful higher inflection during 2025 as investors gain visibility into the potential 2026 EBITDA acceleration and valuation returns to historical ranges.
KeyBanc已將Acadia Healthcare從行業權重上調至增持，目標股價爲70美元，理由是隨着投資者對2026年潛在的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤加速和估值回報率達到歷史區間的了解，2025年將出現顯著的上升趨勢。
Acadia's stock lagged behind the market in 2024 due to external challenges and rising startup expenses, which hurt EBITDA in 2024 and 2025. The analyst believes these issues will improve by 2026, as new beds added in 2024-2025 start to pay off and the increase in startup losses during 2025 slows down or stabilizes.
由於外部挑戰和創業費用增加，阿卡迪亞的股票在2024年落後於市場，這損害了2024年和2025年的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。這位分析師認爲，隨着2024-2025年增加的新牀位開始獲得回報，以及2025年創業虧損的增加減緩或趨於穩定，這些問題將在2026年得到改善。
Price Action: ACHC stock is up 1.45% at $45.50 at last check Tuesday.
價格走勢：週二最後一次檢查時，ACHC股價上漲1.45％，至45.50美元。
