Rate Cuts Could Mean Big Gains for These Canadian Stocks
Rate Cuts Could Mean Big Gains for These Canadian Stocks
Interest rates have been on the decline thus far in 2025. Most investors are aware that the Bank of Canada has been among the most aggressive of the G7 central banks in cutting rates, as the Canadian economy has slowed more considerably than many of its peers due to the importance of the housing sector on overall domestic economic activity.
到目前爲止,2025年的利率一直在下降。大多數投資者都知道,加拿大銀行在G7中央銀行中是最積極減息的,因爲由於住房行業對整體國內經濟活動的重要性,加拿大經濟放緩比許多同行更爲明顯。
However, as the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates and signals that more rate cuts could be on the horizon, Canadian investors may want to think differently about their potential investing options. In this article, I'm going to highlight two very different businesses (one growth stock and one dividend-paying bank stock) that may benefit in different ways from future interest rate cuts.
然而,隨着加拿大銀行繼續減息並暗示可能會有進一步的減息,加拿大投資者可能需要重新考慮他們潛在的投資選項。在本文中,我將重點介紹兩種截然不同的業務(一個成長股票和一個支付股息的銀行股票),它們可能會以不同的方式受益於未來的利率下降。
Toronto-Dominion Bank
多倫多道明銀行
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) is among the largest financial institutions in Canada, and is actually a bank with a strong presence in the U.S. market as well. This is the Canadian bank most investors looking for exposure to the U.S. market may gravitate toward, as the simple reality is that TD's footprint south of the border is larger than it is in Canada.
多倫多道明銀行(TSX:TD)是加拿大最大的金融機構之一,實際上在美國市場也有着強大的存在。這家加拿大銀行是大多數尋求進入美國市場的投資者可能傾向選擇的銀行,因爲實際上道明銀行在美國的足跡比在加拿大更大。
The company's core lending business certainly took a hit following the various Bank of Canada interest rate hikes over the past two years. Interest rate increases did what they were supposed to do, slowed down economic activity. For banks like TD that rely on continued growth to see underlying earnings growth, that's not a good thing.
公司的核心貸款業務在過去兩年加拿大銀行的多次加息後確實受到了打擊。利率的上升達到了預期的效果,經濟活動減緩了。對於像道明這樣的銀行而言,依賴持續增長來實現基礎收益增長的情況並不好。
However, with lower interest rates comes the prospect of greater long-term growth in loan demand, as well as improved credit metrics for borrowers, many of whom have become increasingly indebted of late. Canadian household debt is among the highest in the G7, and this is presenting a problem for the system at this point.
然而,低利率帶來了更大的貸款需求長期增長的前景,以及借款人的信貸指標改善,許多借款人近來債務不斷增加。加拿大家庭債務在G7中是最高的,這在當前爲系統帶來了問題。
I think TD's status as one of the most efficient and innovative banks should position investors well to manage through any economic backdrop moving forward. The company has maintained profitability during previous hiking and cutting cycles, and I think this will be another one of those cycles to invest around. If we do see a significant drop moving forward, TD is a company I'd consider adding.
我認爲道明作爲最有效和最具創新性的銀行之一的地位,應該能使投資者很好地應對未來的任何經濟環境。公司在以往的加息和減息週期中保持了盈利能力,我認爲這將是另一個可以投資的週期。如果我們確實看到未來出現顯著下降,道明是我考慮增持的公司。
Shopify
Shopify
The leading e-commerce platform provider in Canada (and in many parts of the world as well), Shopify (TSX:SHOP) is certainly worth considering as a potential rate cut beneficiary, for very different reasons than TD Bank. Yield curves and net interest margins aren't the story here. Rather, it's about how investors intrinsically value stocks, and how multiples are applied to higher-growth businesses overall.
作爲加拿大領先的電子商務平台提供商(在世界許多地方也是如此),Shopify(TSX:SHOP)毫無疑問值得考慮作爲潛在的利率下調受益者,這與TD銀行的原因截然不同。這裏的故事並不是收益曲線和淨利差。而是投資者如何內在地評估股票,以及對整體高增長企業應用的倍數。
Indeed, during the rock-bottom interest rate environment of the pandemic, Shopify's valuation absolutely skyrocketed. When there's really no alternative in which to invest one's capital (outside of stocks) for a reasonable return, companies like Shopify look like a decent value at multiples that may otherwise seem daunting.
確實,在疫情期間的超低利率環境下,Shopify的估值絕對飆升。當幾乎沒有其他合理的投資選擇(除了股票)爲資本獲取合理回報時,像Shopify這樣的公司看起來在倍數上是一個不錯的價值。
Of course, interest rate increases change that narrative, with stocks like Shopify beginning to look expensive and investors looking to rotate toward growth stocks with better perceived value.
當然,利率的上升改變了這一敘事,像Shopify這樣的股票開始顯得昂貴,投資者開始傾向於旋轉到具有更好感知價值的成長股。
I'm of the view that as discount rates decrease, valuations for companies like Shopify should get a boost. In this sort of environment, a barbell approach with more value-oriented rate cut beneficiaries and higher-growth companies that could see valuation premium surges could be the way to go.
我認爲,隨着貼現率的降低,像Shopify這樣的公司的估值應該會得到提升。在這種環境下,以更多價值導向的利率下調受益者和可能會看到估值溢價激增的高增長公司爲主的啞鈴策略可能是可行的。