Options Montage: Keep both eyes wide open for some post-earnings clues
Options Montage: Keep both eyes wide open for some post-earnings clues
By Eli, Rachel
作者:伊萊,雷切爾
The market continued to melt up Thursday off explosive economic numbers again and interest rates plummeted. This looks like a classic scramble for exposure in "quality" names into earnings. As we usually tend to see during earnings season, overall flow was mixed but kept a bullish lean throughout the session. There were several solid sweeps but we are officially in the hands of the "earnings gods", so take every single bet out there with a grain of salt.
週四,股市繼續因爆炸性的經濟數據而崩盤,利率暴跌。這看起來像是一場典型的爭奪“優質”品牌敞口進入盈利的爭奪戰。正如我們通常在財報季看到的那樣,整體資金流動喜憂參半,但在整個交易日保持看漲傾向。有幾次穩固的橫掃,但我們正式掌握在“盈利之神”手中,所以對每一次押注都持保留態度。
On the sentiment front
在情緒方面
Short-term sentiment ends up back into the sell side, while intraday sentiment is not as cooked, thanks to a few lengthy pauses and VIX bargain hunting throughout the day yesterday.
短期人氣最終回到賣方,而盤中人氣沒有那麼熟,這要歸功於昨日全天的幾次長時間停頓和波動率指數逢低買入。
Intermediate-term sentiment remains unfavorable as a whole but not every indicator is flashing a sell signal. The lack of full participation out there has prevented a few signals from spitting out Euphoria and "all in" readings. For example, AAII bull-bear ratio is scorched while the fear greed indicator remains at neural as the chart shows below.
中期市場情緒總體上仍然不利,但並不是每個指標都在發出賣出信號。由於缺乏充分的參與,一些信號無法發出歡欣鼓舞和“全力以赴”的讀數。例如,AAII牛熊比率被燒焦,而恐懼和貪婪指標仍處於神經狀態,如下圖所示。
AAII sentiment sources: AAII survey
AAII情緒來源:AAII調查
source: CNN
來源:美國有線電視新聞網
As mentioned above, we are in the hands of the "earnings gods" here and that's likely going to have more of any immediate impact over sentiment in the short term but we can sure use just a little breather.
如上所述,我們掌握在“盈利之神”手中,這可能會在短期內對市場人氣產生更多立竿見影的影響,但我們當然可以稍作喘息。
We look forward to this earnings season for potential signs of any rotation into some of the names with better setups out there. From absolute laggards to stronger names that have already started their digestive process over the past couple of weeks, not everything is toasted out there. The lack of full participation out there and major rotation leaves a good amount of stuff out there that's not as hot as the major indices continue to show.
我們期待着這個財報季,看到任何潛在的跡象,任何輪換到一些更好的設置的名字。從絕對落後的公司到實力更強的公司,它們在過去幾周已經開始了消化過程,但並不是所有的東西都被烤熟了。缺乏全面參與和主要輪換留下了大量不像主要指數繼續顯示的那樣熱門的東西。
A good example, pull up a chart of the IWM, which is in the midst of a really constructive breather following that psychotic move that started late last year. Wouldn't it be fantastic to get our hands on some non-stoppable actions again when a few of those little guys at decent entry spots. That's why we stress not getting too bearish here. On the other way, sure the market could see a nice rinse off any sell catalyst that may show up, and the more we continue to melt up, the more cautious of a rinse we become, but the stuff to mostly be worried about is in anything that has gone up in a straight line over the past weeks.
一個很好的例子是,拿出一張IWM的圖表,在去年年底開始的精神運動之後,IWM正處於真正有建設性的喘息之中。當一些小個子球員在體面的入場點時,我們再次獲得一些不可阻擋的行動,這不是很棒嗎?這就是為什麼我們在這裏強調不要太悲觀。另一方面,市場肯定會看到任何可能出現的拋售催化劑被很好地衝刷掉,我們繼續熔化的越多,我們就越謹慎,但最令人擔憂的是過去幾周直線上漲的任何東西。
A sentiment rinse may affect even the issues that haven't rallied as hard over the short-term but they will likely hold up better and could see more rotation eventually. That's where the opportunities show up. Remember, Chairman Powell has still left the faucet of liquidity running as the FED's balance sheet is at new all-time highs, he's made it fairly clear that will be the case until things get back to some sort of normalcy.
情緒沖刷可能甚至會影響那些在短期內沒有那麼強勁反彈的問題,但它們可能會保持得更好,最終可能會出現更多輪換。這就是機會顯現的地方。請記住,由於美聯儲的資產負債表處於歷史新高,鮑威爾主席仍然讓流動性的水龍頭開着,他已經相當明確地表示,在情況恢復到某種正常狀態之前,這種情況將一直存在。
Bottom line
底線
So the game remains rigged for the time being, with some tactical heat plus the start of earnings season here, it's a good time to be patient and keep both eyes wide open for some post-earnings clues. And more importantly not get distracted by all the noise and build a bias that will ultimately provide potential opportunities.
因此,這場比賽暫時仍然受到操縱,隨着一些戰術熱度的到來,加上這裏財報季的開始,現在是一個耐心的好時機,睜大眼睛尋找一些財報後的線索。更重要的是,不要被所有的噪音分心,不要建立一種最終會提供潛在機會的偏見。
Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 4/15
4/15對大盤指數ETF的值得注意的押注
Today's option volume of 36.1m contracts was 3% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 17 to 10. Single stock and Index products saw relatively heavy volume, while ETF flow was moderate.
今日3610萬份合約的期權成交量比近期平均水平高出3%,看跌期權的數量為17比10。單一股票和指數產品的成交量相對較大,而ETF的成交量不大。
Individuals breakdown by sectors (4/15 notable bets)
按行業細分的個人(4/15值得注意的賭注)
Most active sectors included Financials, Basic Materials and Health Care, while Utilities and Telecommunications were relatively light. Of the 3923 stocks with listed options, 2305 (59%) closed higher, and 1513 (39)% lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was higher for 144 and lower for 312. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD.US)$, $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA.US)$, $Plug Power Inc(PLUG.US)$ and $QuantumScape Corp(QS.US)$.
最活躍的板塊包括金融、基礎材料和醫療保健,而公用事業和電信板塊相對較少。在擁有上市期權的3,923只股票中,有2,305只(59%)收高,1,513只(39%)下跌。在流動性最強的500只單一股票中,30日隱含波動率較高的有144只,較低的有312只。觀察到異常的期權總成交量$美國超微公司(AMD.US)$, $美國銀行(美國銀行)$, $英偉達(美國內華達州)$, $Plug Power Inc.(PLUG.US)$和$Quantumscape Corp(QS.US)$.
Tech
高科技
Industrial
工業
Consumer Cyclical
消費週期
Financial
金融
Communication Services
通信服務
Healthcare
醫療保健
Energy
能量
Real Estate
房地產
Basic materials
基礎材料
Consumer Defensive
消費者防禦性
Utilities
公用事業