First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady
First Interest Rate Cut May Not Come Until June 'If At All,' Economist Warns As Fed Holds Steady
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday, following a series of three consecutive rate cuts that began in September. Here's a look at how experts see the Federal Reserve's path ahead.
週三,聯邦儲備銀行將利率保持在4.25%至4.5%的區間內,這一決策是在自九月份以來連續三次減息之後作出的。以下是專家們對聯邦儲備未來路徑的看法。
Expert Ideas: Multiple economists noted that the language in the Fed's policy statement had turned slightly more hawkish as "progress" had been removed.
專家觀點:多位經濟學家指出,聯邦儲備政策聲明中的語言略顯鷹派,因爲「進展」一詞已被去除。
The statement released Wednesday reads, "Inflation remains somewhat elevated," a change from the prior statement which said that "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated."
週三發佈的聲明中寫道:「通貨膨脹依然高企,」這一表述與之前的聲明有所不同,後者表示「通貨膨脹已朝着委員會2%目標取得進展,但依然高企。」
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said that the Federal Reserve is likely being cautious as they wait to see if policy changes from the Trump administration, including higher tariffs and tighter immigration regulations, lead to higher inflation.
聯信銀行首席經濟學家比爾·亞當斯表示,聯邦儲備可能會保持謹慎,等待特朗普政府的政策變化是否會導致更高的通貨膨脹,包括提高關稅和收緊移民法規。
Investors are now pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, a 45% chance in June, a 28.3% chance in September, and a 17% probability of a cut in December.
投資者目前預計,在聯邦儲備三月份的會議上減息的概率爲30%,六月份爲45%,九月份爲28.3%,而十二月份減息的概率爲17%。
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, sees the first possible rate cut of 25 basis points coming in June and another quarter-point cut in December.
RSM首席經濟學家約瑟夫·布魯蘇埃拉斯預計,首次可能的減息25個點子將在六月份發生,另一個25個點子的減息將在十二月份。
"We think the first possible date for any rate cuts that might come this year, if at all, is June," Brusuelas said.
布魯蘇埃拉斯表示:「我們認爲,今年可能發生的任何減息的首次可能日期是六月份。」
Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, called Wednesday's pause from the Fed a "non-event" for markets and echoed Brusuelas' call for two 25-basis point rate cuts, one in June and one in December.
藍籌股日報的首席技術策略師拉里·坦塔雷利稱週三聯邦儲備的暫停對市場而言是一次「非事件」,並呼應布魯蘇埃拉斯對六月份和十二月份各減息25個點子的預期。
However, he cautioned that "Fed moves will really be based on future incoming payrolls data and inflation data."
但是,他警告說:「聯儲局的舉動將真正基於未來的就業數據和通脹數據。」
Markets React: All major U.S. indices were down on Wednesday with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), tracking the S&P 500, down 0.45% at $601.81 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, down 0.19% at $520.83.
市場反應:週三所有主要的美國指數都下跌,跟蹤標普500的SPDR 標普500指數ETF(紐交所:SPY)下跌0.45%,報601.81美元,跟蹤納斯達克100指數的納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(納斯達克:QQQ)下跌0.19%,報520.83美元。
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