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Red-Hot U.S. economy drives global inflation, forcing foreign banks to act

Red-Hot U.S. economy drives global inflation, forcing foreign banks to act

火熱的美國經濟推動全球通脹,迫使外國銀行採取行動
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/06/17 09:08

By Tom Fairless in Frankfurt and Paul Hannon in London

湯姆·費利斯(Tom Fairless)法蘭克福和保羅·漢農(Paul Hannon)倫敦

A booming U.S. economy that is driving inflation higher around the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite the public health crisis and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.

蓬勃發展的美國經濟正在推高世界各地的通貨膨脹率,推高美元,迫使一些央行提高利率,儘管它們自己的國家存在公共健康危機和不完全的經濟復甦。

The world's central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Global stock markets fell on Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.

世界各國央行正寄望於美國聯邦儲備委員會(美聯儲,FED)將如何應對通脹上升,它們擔心陷入美國經濟非同尋常的擴張的逆流中.全球股市週四下跌,此前美聯儲官員暗示,隨着美國經濟升温,他們預計將在2023年底之前加息,早於3月份的預期。

A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.

以美聯儲為中心的全球利率上升有可能扼殺一些地方的經濟復甦,特別是在新興市場債務上升的情況下。

The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year's shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.

美國經濟規模佔全球國內生產總值(GDP)的近四分之一,其金融市場的重要性長期以來對全球政策制定產生了巨大的拉動作用。但美國今年異常強勁的增長對世界經濟仍在從去年的衝擊中復甦至關重要。根據週三公佈的預測,美聯儲官員預計美國經濟今年將增長7%。

Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities' prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.

最近幾周,俄羅斯、巴西和土耳其的央行紛紛加息,部分原因是為了抑制今年大宗商品價格飆升引發的通脹。隨着世界各地的工廠竭盡全力滿足美國的需求,從錫到銅的各種大宗商品價格飆升。

"With all the consequences of the public health crisis, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening," said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.

倫敦牛津經濟研究院的經濟學家Tamara Basic Vasiljev説:“考慮到公共衞生危機的種種後果,這些國家現在最不需要的就是收緊政策。”

A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.

美國經濟繁榮通過促進美國進口和匯款來支持世界各地的經濟。但它也推高了借貸成本和通脹,並使美元走強,這收緊了全球金融狀況,並對復甦起到了抑制作用。

The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollar hurts emerging-market economies that have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.

疼痛的感覺不均勻。美元走強損害了以美元借款的新興市場經濟體,同時幫助了歐洲和東亞較大的出口商,這些出口商的產品相對於美國出口產品變得更具競爭力。

In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.

在發達經濟體,央行官員大多認為,除非消費者開始預期通脹將持續並要求加薪,否則通脹上升時期將被證明是暫時的。

While central banks don't see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.

雖然各國央行認為這不會很快發生,但一些經濟學家認為他們可能會感到意外。

"I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring," said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)首席全球經濟學家路易吉·斯佩蘭扎(Luigi Speranza)表示:“我認為,這種對價格的暫時性衝擊很有可能變得更加持久。”斯佩蘭薩指出,今年年底下一輪薪酬談判開始時,德國的通脹率可能在4%左右。

Central banks in Europe and Japan need to match the Fed's dovishness or risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.

經濟學家説,歐洲和日本的央行需要配合美聯儲的鴿派立場,否則他們的貨幣可能會飆升,從而破壞經濟復甦。如果事實證明通脹比預期更持久,圍繞美聯儲的微妙舞蹈可能會被打破,這可能會引發加息的連鎖反應。

To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics

- said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research at BlackRock.

為了防止歐元走強,[歐洲央行]需要與美聯儲(Federal Reserve)類似的鴿派立場,這可能是一場鬥爭,因為通脹和增長動態不同

--貝萊德宏觀研究主管Elga Bartsch表示。

Emerging-market economies often don't have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies' and households' ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.

然而,新興市場經濟體往往沒有等待的奢侈。即使是短暫的通脹爆發,也可能嚴重拖累這些國家的貨幣,並損害企業和家庭償還通常以美元或歐元計價的債務的能力。

The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 "taper tantrum," in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.

美聯儲已經暗示,它將小心避免2013年的“縮減恐慌”(Taper Tantrum)重演。在2013年的“縮減恐慌”中,發展中國家的中央銀行被迫對外國投資的突然撤出做出迴應,原因是美聯儲表示正在考慮縮減刺激計劃,這讓投資者感到意外。

So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent, and I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we'll try to be clear.

- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. 

因此,我們對這一過程的意圖是,它將是有序的、有條不紊的和透明的,我可以告訴你,我們看到了提前很好地溝通我們的想法的真正價值。我們會盡量説清楚的。

-美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾週三表示。



But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.

但隨着全球通脹加速,美聯儲開始改變路線,一些央行的考量正在改變。

Brazil's central bank unveiled a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase on Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.

巴西央行週三宣佈連續第三次加息0.75個百分點,並暗示未來可能會有更大幅度的加息,因為巴西央行正在努力應對8%以上的通脹率。

The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn't expect this to hinder economic growth.

俄羅斯央行今年已三次上調基準利率至5.5%,本月通脹率加速至6%以上,為近五年來的最高水平。週二,俄羅斯州長納比烏利納(Elvira Nabiullina)説,俄羅斯將繼續加息,預計這不會阻礙經濟增長。

"We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don't clip the wings of a recovering economy," Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia's lower house of parliament. "Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation."

納比烏利納在俄羅斯議會下院的一次演講中説,“我們保持低利率已經有相當長的一段時間了,以確保我們不會扼殺正在復甦的經濟的翅膀。”“現在是加息以應對環境變化和通脹上升的時候了.”

Turkey's central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeks as investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.

土耳其央行3月大幅上調主要利率至19%,以對抗兩位數的通脹和不斷貶值的里拉。但最近幾周,土耳其里拉再次承壓,投資者試圖評估央行是否會聽從總統雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的降息要求。

Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set -- the vegetables needed for Russia's beloved soup -- which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.

最近新鮮農產品的價格上漲提高了所謂的羅宋湯套餐--俄羅斯人喜愛的湯所需的蔬菜--對許多俄羅斯人來説,這是一個風向標。自今年年初以來,土豆、捲心菜和胡蘿蔔的價格上漲了60%至80%。

In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.

在貧窮國家,支出的較大部分通常用於食品和能源等必需品,因此當這些價格上漲時,政策制定者會更快地抑制通脹。

Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway's central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.

斯堪的納維亞半島和韓國的央行已經發出信號,表示計劃收緊貨幣政策,以抑制可能的資產泡沫,特別是在房地產領域。挪威央行週四暗示將在9月升息。

Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn't suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during 2020, but are seeing inflation rise.

包括匈牙利和捷克在內的中歐央行預計也將很快加息。2020年,它們沒有遭受法國和西班牙等較大歐洲國家那樣規模的收縮,但通脹正在上升。

Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the "taper tantrum."

摩根大通資產管理公司(JP Morgan Asset Management)固定收益首席投資官伊恩·斯蒂利(Iain Stealey)表示,美聯儲可能會設法避免“縮減恐慌”的重演。

"It is a very long, slow process...it's very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation," Mr. Stealey said.

“這是一個非常漫長、緩慢的過程……考慮到通脹的意外上行,很難不這麼做,”斯蒂利説。

Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.

不過,經濟學家表示,耐心的做法仍存在問題。

"This idea of letting inflation run hot...means that you're only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem," said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.

法國興業銀行(SociétéGénérale)首席全球經濟學家克勞斯·巴德爾(Klaus Baader)表示:“讓通脹高歌猛進的想法……意味着你只有在已經有通脹問題的時候才會意識到自己有通脹問題。”

Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

寫信給Tom Fairless(tom.airless@wsj.com)和Paul Hannon(paul.hannon@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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June 17, 2021 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT)

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