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TREASURIES-Yields lower after strong payroll data puts focus on Fed

TREASURIES-Yields lower after strong payroll data puts focus on Fed

美國國債收益率走低,此前強勁的非農就業數據使人們關注美聯儲
路透社 ·  2021/07/02 10:00

By Ross Kerber
   July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday after a strong payroll report left uncertainty about how the U.S. Federal Reserve might respond.
   The benchmark 10-year yield was down 2.4 basis points at 1.4559% in morning trading. That was slightly above its level before new Labor Department data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in June.
   Nonfarm payrolls increased by 850,000 jobs last month after rising 583,000 in May, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in May.
   Treasury yields initially spiked up on the strong job gains, then fell back. Market analysts said the trading reflected mixed interpretations about how the Fed might incorporate the new information as it decides how to end crisis-era bond-buying.
   Normally strong numbers would send yields higher, said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy for TD Securities in New York. Of Friday's trading, she said, "I think the market is torn between whether to price in the market outlook or the Fed reaction."
   The minutes of the Fed's June 16-17 meeting, when officials opened debate on how to end crisis-era bond-buying and signalled interest rate increases were closer on the horizon than previously thought, are due out on Wednesday.
   Friday's trading left little changed a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations. It was at 121 basis points, about a basis point higher than Thursday's close.
   The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.4 basis points at 0.2435%.
  
   July 2 Friday 9:31AM New York / 1331 GMT
   Price Current Net
   Yield % Change
   (bps)  Three-month bills 0.0475 0.0482 0.000  Six-month bills 0.0525 0.0532 0.002  Two-year note 99-196/256 0.2435 -0.014  Three-year note 99-104/256 0.4533 -0.018  Five-year note 99-250/256 0.8798 -0.022  Seven-year note 100-54/256 1.2184 -0.027  10-year note 101-140/256 1.4559 -0.024  20-year bond 103-252/256 2.0057 -0.013  30-year bond 106-196/256 2.07 -0.016
  
   DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
   Last (bps) Net
   Change
   (bps)   U.S. 2-year dollar swap 7.50 -0.50   spread   U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.50 -0.75   spread   U.S. 5-year dollar swap 7.75 -0.25   spread   U.S. 10-year dollar swap -2.00 0.00   spread   U.S. 30-year dollar swap -31.25 -0.25   spread
       (Reporting by Ross Kerber in Boston Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)  ((ross.kerber@thomsonreuters.com; (617) 856 4341; Reuters Messaging: Ross.Kerber.Reuters.com@Reuters.net)

羅斯·科伯(Ross Kerber)著路透7月2日電-美國公債收益率(殖利率)週五走低,此前強勁的非農就業報告令美國聯邦儲備委員會(美聯儲,FED)可能如何應對存在不確定性.在早盤交易中,基準10年期國債收益率下跌2.4個基點,至1.4559%。這略高於美國勞工部新數據顯示美國6月就業增長加速之前的水平.美國勞工部週五在其備受關注的就業報告中表示,繼5月份增加58.3萬個就業崗位後,上月非農就業人數增加了85萬個。失業率從5月的5.8%升至5.9%。美國國債收益率最初因強勁的就業增長而飆升,隨後回落。市場分析師表示,這些交易反映出,對於美聯儲在決定如何結束危機時期的債券購買計劃時,可能會如何納入新的信息,各方的解讀褒貶不一。道明證券(TD Securities)駐紐約的利率策略全球主管普里亞·米斯拉(Priya Misra)表示,通常強勁的數據將推高收益率。在談到週五的交易時,她説,“我認為市場在是否計入市場前景和美聯儲的反應之間左右為難。”美聯儲6月16-17日會議紀要將於週三公佈。官員們在會上就如何結束危機時期的債券購買展開了辯論,並暗示加息的時間比之前想象的更近。週五的交易幾乎沒有改變受到密切關注的美國公債收益率曲線的一部分,該曲線衡量的是兩年期和10年期公債收益率之間的差距,該指標被視為經濟預期的指標。報121個基點,較週四收盤價高出約一個基點。兩年期美國國債收益率(通常與利率預期同步)下跌1.4%,至0.2435%。7月2日星期五上午9:31紐約/格林威治時間1331現價淨額收益率%變化(Bp)三個月期國庫券0.0475 0.0482 0.000六個月期國庫券0.0525 0.0532 0.002兩年期公債99-196/256 0.2435-0.014三年期公債99-104/256 0.4533-0.018五年期公債99-250/2560.8798-0.022七年期公債100-54/256 1.2184-0.027 10年期公債101-140/256 1.4559-0.024 20年期公債103-252/256 2.0057-0.013 30年期公債106-196/2562.07-0.016美元掉期價差最後(Bps)淨額變化(Bp)美元2年期掉期7.50-0.50利差美元3年期掉期11.50-0.75利差5年期美元掉期7.75-0.25利差美元10年期掉期-2.00 0.00利差美元30年期掉期-31.25-0.25利差(Ross Kerber在波士頓編輯Chizu Nomiyama報道)(ross.kerber@thomsonreurs.com;(617)856 4341;路透社消息:Ross.Kerber.Reurs.com@reurs.net)

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