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Tesla stock ‘death cross’ is an indicator to wait this one out

Tesla stock ‘death cross’ is an indicator to wait this one out

特斯拉股票‘死亡十字’是等待這一結果的一個指標
InvestorPlace ·  2021/07/13 06:37

$Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US)$ stock chart produced the first bearish “death cross” pattern in more than two years on Friday. The last time such a sign occurred, TSLA stock fell more than 40% within 65 days.

$Tesla,Inc.(TSLA.US)$上週五,股票圖表出現了兩年多來的首個看跌“死亡十字”形態。上一次出現這種跡象時,新浪特斯拉的股價在65天內暴跌了40%以上。

The 50-day moving average (DMA), one of the most-followed technical indicators of trends in price movement, fell to $629.66 from $630.44 at Thursday’s close. The 200-DMA, a key indicator by traders and market analysts for determining overall long-term market trends, rose to $630.76 from $629.61.

最受關注的價格走勢技術指標之一的50日移動均線切入位跌至629.66美元,週四收盤時為630.44美元。200dma指數從629.61美元升至630.76美元,這是交易員和市場分析師判斷整體長期市場趨勢的關鍵指標。

That resulted in the snapping of a 20-month streak in which the 50-DMA has closed above the 200-DMA. Technical analysts know this point as a “death cross,” which often precedes further losses for the stock.

這導致了持續20個月的50-DMA收盤突破200-DMA的局面被打破。技術分析師將這一點稱為“死亡十字”,這往往是該股進一步下跌的先兆。

There are several factors for this bearish sentiment. Automakers are aggressively entering the electric vehicle race, looking to take advantage of the industry’s future growth trajectory.

有幾個因素導致了這種悲觀情緒。汽車製造商正積極進入電動汽車競賽,希望利用該行業未來的增長軌跡。

Meanwhile, China has been the world’s largest new energy vehicle (NEV) market by sales volume since 2015, and it’s a key battleground for Tesla. Elon Musk has had a great relationship with the country. But local challengers like $NIO Inc.(NIO.US)$, $XPeng Inc.(XPEV.US)$, and $li Auto Inc.(LI.US)$ are slowly gnawing away at Tesla’s market share.

與此同時,自2015年以來,中國一直是世界上銷量最大的新能源汽車(NEV)市場,也是特斯拉的主戰場。埃隆·馬斯克與這個國家的關係一直很好。但當地的挑戰者$蔚來。(NIO.US)$, $小鵬汽車-W公司(XPEV.US)$,及$理想汽車-W公司(LI.US)$正在慢慢蠶食特斯拉的市場份額。

Tesla’s stock hasn’t closed at a record since Jan. 26. Friday was nearly 26% below its high of $883.09. Meanwhile, all of the FAANG stocks have set fresh records in the past two weeks. Clearly, this is one of the rare occasions Tesla bulls have had to eat humble pie.

自1月26日以來,特斯拉的股票從未創下過收盤新高。上週五的價格比883.09美元的高點低了近26%。與此同時,FAANG的所有股票在過去兩週都創下了新的紀錄。顯然,這是看好特斯拉的人為數不多的不得不接受謙遜餡餅的場合之一。

China Missteps Weighing on TSLA Stock Sentiment

中國失策拖累特斯拉股市人氣

TSLA stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 1292.4% and its sector by 1242.8% over the past five years. But even multi-bagger stocks aren’t immune to major drawdowns.

特斯拉的股票表現優於標準普爾500指數在過去的五年中,其行業增長了1292.4%,增長了1242.8%。但即使是多套股也不能倖免於大幅下跌。

Over the last three months, TSLA stock is down 6.4%. There are several reasons to explain the drop. China is the largest new car market in the world and the largest market for new EVs. Tesla’s unparalleled success in China has helped Musk become among the world’s richest people. 

過去三個月,新浪特斯拉的股價下跌了6.4%。有幾個原因可以解釋下降的原因。中國是世界上最大的新車市場,也是最大的新電動車市場。特斯拉在中國取得的無與倫比的成功幫助馬斯克躋身世界首富之列。

Looking ahead, China appears to hold the key for Tesla and most EV stocks. With that in mind, Tesla’s recent missteps in China are weighing on investor sentiment. The company was roundly criticized for handling a brake issue and had to issue a technical recall to fix an issue with its cruise control.

展望未來,中國似乎是特斯拉和大多數電動汽車股票的關鍵。考慮到這一點,特斯拉最近在中國的失誤正在拖累投資者情緒。該公司因處理剎車問題而受到嚴厲批評,不得不進行技術召回,以修復其巡航控制系統的問題。

The cars didn’t have to go into any service shop for a fix, and the issue was handled through an over-the-air software update. Still, Tesla sells approximately 30% of its cars in China, made at its Shanghai factory. PR issues in such a big market will undoubtedly have an impact.

這些汽車不需要去任何維修店進行維修,這個問題是通過空中軟件更新來處理的。儘管如此,特斯拉仍有大約30%的汽車在中國銷售,這些汽車都是在上海工廠生產的。在如此大的市場中,公關問題無疑會產生影響。

Inflation Fears and Competition

通脹恐懼與競爭

The consumer prices index rose at an annual rate of 5% in May, up from 4.2% in April and the highest since August 2008. This is a natural consequence of the economy reopening and people returning to work.

5月消費者物價指數年增率為5%,高於4月的4.2%,為2008年8月以來最高。這是經濟重新開放和人們重返工作崗位的自然結果。

It is also causing a broader correction in tech stocks. Investors value these stocks by how much future cash flow these companies can generate. As inflation goes up, the value of those future cash flows declines.

它還導致了一場科技股的更廣泛回調。投資者對這些股票的估值取決於這些公司未來能產生多少現金流。隨着通脹上升,這些未來現金流的價值會下降。

In addition, traditional automobile giants are all now firmly in the EV game. $General Motors Co(GM.US)$, $Ford Motor Co(F.US)$ and $VOLKSWAGEN A G(VWAGY.US)$ are making significant inroads in the space, expanding their product line and investing heavily in carving out market share for themselves.

此外,傳統汽車巨頭現在都牢牢地參與了電動汽車的遊戲。$通用汽車(通用汽車美國)$, $福特汽車公司(F.US)$$大眾汽車(ADR)(VWAG.US)$它們在這一領域取得了重大進展,擴大了產品線,並投入巨資為自己開拓市場份額。

$Amazon.Com Inc(AMZN.US)$ is doing its thing with delivery vans with privately held Rivian. That collaboration is expected to produce up to 100,000 electric delivery trucks. The first 10,000 by the end of 2022, and the remaining 90,000 by 2030.

$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$正在用私人持股的送貨車做事情Rivian。這一合作預計將生產多達10萬輛電動送貨卡車。到2022年底,第一個1萬人,到2030年,剩下的9萬人。

All of that means one thing, more competition for Tesla in the coming months. And when you add a semiconductor chip shortage affecting several industries, including the EV sector, you will understand why investors are taking their profits and investing elsewhere.

所有這一切都意味着一件事,未來幾個月特斯拉將面臨更多競爭。當您添加一個半導體芯片短缺影響到包括電動汽車行業在內的幾個行業,你會理解為什麼投資者將利潤轉移到其他地方投資。

Before moving to the next section, it is also important to highlight recovery plays. For the last year, several industries bore the brunt of this crisis. However, these companies are emerging from the shadows and are poised to do exceedingly well in the current fiscal year and beyond. Undoubtedly, value investors turn their attention toward these stocks, thereby reducing their holdings in risky bets like Tesla, another factor why TSLA stock is trending downward.

在進入下一節之前,還必須強調恢復播放。去年,幾個行業在這場危機中首當其衝。然而,這些公司正從陰影中走出來,並準備在本財年及以後表現得非常好。毫無疑問,價值投資者將注意力轉向這些股票,從而減少了對特斯拉等高風險押注的投資,這也是特斯拉股價下跌的另一個因素。

First Time for Everything

一切都是第一次

Tesla, the bellwether for the EV industry, is in dire straits for the first time in a long time. You will not hear this often. But it’s best to let TSLA stock cool off a bit more before adding more to your portfolio.

電動汽車行業的領頭羊特斯拉很長一段時間以來首次陷入困境。你不會經常聽到這樣的話。但在增加投資組合之前,最好先讓新浪特斯拉的股票冷卻一下。

Even the best stocks go through these phases and I am sure TSLA bulls will not be too concerned. But still, in the short term, this is there are too many red flags.

即使是最好的股票也會經歷這些階段,我相信看漲特斯拉的人不會太擔心。但在短期內,這仍然是危險信號太多了。

On the date of publication, Faizan Farooque did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

發稿日期:法贊·法魯克沒有(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。本文表達的觀點是作者的觀點,以InvestorPlace.com為準出版指南.

Faizan Farooque is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Faizan has several years of experience analyzing the stock market and was a former data journalist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. His passion is to help the average investor make more informed decisions regarding their portfolio. Faizan does not directly own the securities mentioned above.

法伊贊·法魯克是《InvestorPlace.com和許多其他金融網站。法伊贊擁有多年的股市分析經驗,曾在標準普爾全球市場情報公司擔任數據記者。他的熱情是幫助普通投資者就他們的投資組合做出更明智的決定。法伊贊並不直接擁有上述證券。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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