Intel Stock Will Be Back, but It Is Going to Take a While
Intel Stock Will Be Back, but It Is Going to Take a While
$Intel Corp(INTC.US)$ stock will come good. Just not right away.
$英特爾公司(INTC.US)$庫存會好起來的。只是不是馬上。
The former chip industry leader is now cheap as chips. This after reporting net income of $5.1 billion, $1.24 per share on revenue of $19.6 billion for the June quarter.
這家昔日的芯片行業領頭羊現在的身價就像芯片一樣便宜。此前，該公司公佈第二季度淨收益為51億美元，每股收益1.24美元，營收為196億美元。
The numbers beat estimates, but investors turned thumbs-down anyway, sending INTC stock down 2.5% overnight.
這些數字超出了預期，但投資者仍然對此表示反對，導致英特爾股價一夜之間下跌2.5%。
INTC stock was due to open July 23 at about $54.50, a market cap of $225 billion. The dividend, not threatened by the earnings, now yields nearly 2.5% and the price to earnings ratio is 12.5. The stock sells for barely three times last year’s sales.
INTC股票原定於7月23日以約54.50美元的價格開盤，市值為2,250億美元。在不受收益威脅的情況下，股息目前的收益率接近2.5%，市盈率為12.5倍。該股售價僅為去年銷售額的三倍。
By contrast $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA.US)$, which designs chips but doesn’t own a foundry, is at $196/share after a 4:1 stock split. That’s a market cap of $488 billion, a PE of 92, and the dividend yields .08%. The price to sales ratio is nearly 25.
相比之下，$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA.US)$該公司設計芯片，但不擁有一家代工廠，在4：1的股票拆分後，該公司的股價為每股196美元。這是4880億美元的市值，92倍的市盈率，股息收益率為0.08%。價格與銷售額之比接近25倍。
What Went Wrong With INTC Stock
INTC股票出了什麼問題
Intel didn’t get into trouble fast, and it’s not getting out of it fast either.
英特爾沒有很快陷入困境，也沒有很快擺脱困境。
CEO Pat Geisinger didn’t rejoin the company until February, after nearly a decade running $VMware Inc(VMW.US)$. Before that he had been with Intel for 30 years.
首席執行官帕特·蓋辛格(Pat Geisinger)在連續工作近十年後，直到2月份才重新加入公司$VMware Inc.(VMW.US)$。在此之前，他已經在英特爾工作了30年。
The man he was pushed out for, Brian Krzanich, turned out to be one of the worst CEOs of the last decade. That’s a rogues gallery that includes Virginia Rometty of $International Business Machines Corp(IBM.US)$, Jeff Immelt of $General Electric Co(GE.US)$ and Randall Stephenson of $AT&T Inc(T.US)$.
他被趕下台的人布萊恩·克爾扎尼奇(Brian Krzanich)被證明是過去十年中最糟糕的首席執行官之一。這是一個流氓畫廊，其中包括弗吉尼亞·羅曼提$國際商業機器公司(IBM.US)$，傑夫·伊梅爾特$通用電氣公司(General Electric Co)$和蘭德爾·斯蒂芬森(Randall Stephenson)$AT&T Inc.(T.US)$.
Krzanich ran off competing voices and failed to compete in manufacturing, losing the lead to $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd(TSM.US)$. He was finally pushed out after a sex scandal.
Krzanich跑出了競爭對手的聲音，在製造業競爭中失敗，失去了領先地位$台積電製造有限公司(TSM.US)$。在爆出性醜聞後，他終於被趕下台了。
Intel’s problems can be summed up in one word: ultraviolet. Taiwan Semiconductor has mastered Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography. It has a road map to make chips with circuit lines 2 nm apart later this decade. That’s thinner than the distance between strands of DNA. Intel is stuck at 10 nm.
英特爾的問題可以用一個詞來概括：紫外線。台積電已經掌握了極紫外光刻技術。該公司制定了在本十年晚些時候製造電路線間距為2 nm的芯片的路線圖。這比DNA鏈之間的距離還要細。英特爾在10納米處停滯不前。
Rather than cede the field to the Taiwanese, whose foundries supply Nvidia, $Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD.US)$ and $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, among others, Geisinger is doubling down. He’s putting $20 billion into two new Arizona chip plants. He’s also negotiating the purchase of Global Foundries, the Arab-backed chip foundry, at a price of about $30 billion.
與其把油田讓給台灣人，他們的鑄造廠為英偉達供貨，$Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD.US)$和$蘋果公司(AAPL.US)$其中，蓋辛格正在加倍下注。他將向亞利桑那州的兩家新芯片廠投資200億美元。他還在談判以約300億美元的價格收購阿拉伯支持的芯片代工公司Global Foundries。
It’s affordable, but it’s not cheap. Intel had $14.3 billion of operating cash flow in the first half of the year. The company also sent $5.2 billion during the first half to shareholders, in the form of dividends and stock buybacks. The cash flow, and payouts, were both lower than in 2020.
價格實惠，但不便宜。英特爾上半年的運營現金流為143億美元。今年上半年，該公司還以股息和股票回購的形式向股東支付了52億美元。現金流和支出都低於2020年。
The current chip shortage sees Nvidia holding the pricing power Intel once had. It is continuing to gain share in data centers, even though clouds were designed to use cheaper chips.
目前的芯片短缺使NVIDIA擁有英特爾曾經擁有的定價權。儘管雲被設計為使用更便宜的芯片，但它在數據中心的份額仍在繼續增加。
What bears fear is that Intel could lose even its current pricing power if the chip shortage ends quickly. $Texas Instruments Inc(TXN.US)$, another chip maker, has said revenues should flatten later this year. Intel’s forecast is that shortages continue, into 2023.
令人擔憂的是，如果芯片短缺迅速結束，英特爾甚至可能失去目前的定價權。$德州儀器公司(TXN.US)$另一家芯片製造商高通()曾表示，今年晚些時候營收應該會持平。英特爾的預測是短缺將持續到2023年。
The Bottom Line
底線
I was a huge critic of Krzanich. I wasn’t a fan of his successor, financial man Robert Swan. I didn’t start recommending Intel again until Geisinger was being recruited.
我當時是個克爾扎尼奇的巨大批評者. I 我不是你的粉絲他的繼任者，金融家羅伯特·斯旺。我沒有再次推薦英特爾直到蓋辛格被招募.
Shares rose sharply after Geisinger was hired, to as high as $68 in April, but the honeymoon is over. INTC stock trades today at around $53.
蓋辛格被聘用後，股價大幅上漲，4月份曾高達68美元，但蜜月期已經結束。INTC股票今天的交易價格約為53美元。
You don’t have to rush back into Intel, but it’s a good hedge against Nvidia gains. These have been spectacular. It’s up 343% in just the last two years.
你不必急於買入英特爾，但這是對英偉達收益的一種很好的對衝。這些都是令人歎為觀止的。僅在過去兩年裏就上漲了343%。
There are no losers because everything is a computer now. I call it the Machine Internet and it’s one of the new decade’s big trends. You don’t need to rush back into Intel but three years from now the current price will look dirt cheap.
沒有輸家，因為現在一切都是電腦。我稱之為機器互聯網，它是新十年的大趨勢之一。你不需要急於回到英特爾，但從現在開始三年後，當前的價格看起來會非常便宜。
On the date of publication, Dana Blankenhorn held long positions in INTC, NVDA, TSM and AAPL. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
在發表之日，Dana Blankenhorn在INTC、NVDA、TSM和AAPL持有多頭頭寸。本文表達的觀點是作者的觀點，以InvestorPlace.com為準出版指南.
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崗位英特爾股票將會回升，但還需要一段時間第一次出現在InvestorPlace.