CITIC Securities initiates coverage on NIO with Buy rating and $45 price target
CITIC Securities initiates coverage on NIO with Buy rating and $45 price target
After Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, another top Chinese investment bank, initiated coverage on NIO with a Buy rating.
繼興業證券(Industrial Securities)之後，另一家中國頂級投行中信股份證券(Meituan Securities)在NIO上以買入評級啟動了報道。
In a research note released on Monday, CITIC Securities' team of chief new energy vehicle analyst Yuan Jiancong said NIO has now regained its footing after experiencing the darkest moment in 2019, with rapid sales and revenue growth expected.
在週一發佈的一份研究報告中，中信股份證券的首席新能源汽車分析師袁建聰團隊表示，新能源汽車在經歷了2019年最黑暗的時刻後，現在已經重新站穩腳跟，預計銷量和收入將快速增長。
In the medium to long term, the company is expected to be a catch-up to Tesla with its ability to sustain financing, strong R&D team, Internet thinking, differentiated product competitiveness, and ability to continue product iteration, the team said.
該團隊表示，從中長期來看，該公司有望憑藉其持續融資的能力、強大的研發團隊、互聯網思維、差異化的產品競爭力以及繼續產品迭代的能力，成為特斯拉的追趕者。
They have a "Buy" rating and a $45 price target on NIO, the team said, giving the company 8x PS in 2022 under a neutral scenario.
該團隊表示，他們對NIO的評級為“買入”，目標價為45美元，在中性情況下，2022年該公司的市盈率為8倍。
NIO closed down 0.53 percent to $35.64 on Monday. The price target implies a 26 percent upside.
NIO週一收跌0.53%，報35.64美元.這個目標價格意味着26%的上行空間。
In their 43-page report, CITIC Securities details NIO's history, equity structure, differentiated competitive advantages, leading gross margins, and view of the electric vehicle industry as a whole.
中信股份證券在他們43頁的報告中詳細介紹了NIO的歷史、股權結構、差異化競爭優勢、領先的毛利率以及對電動汽車行業的整體看法。
The team believes that the low- and mid-range new energy SUV market in China is highly competitive, while the high-end market, where NIO is located, has fewer players and huge room for growth.
該團隊認為，中國中低端新能源SUV市場競爭激烈，而NIO所在的高端市場玩家較少，增長空間巨大。
"Among the top 10 EV brands in terms of sales in 2020, only Tesla and NIO are in the premium segment, while the other eight brands are in the low to mid-end segment, representing huge room for growth in China's premium EV market," the report said.
報告稱：“在2020年銷量排名前十的電動汽車品牌中，只有特斯拉和NIO處於高端市場，而其他八個品牌處於中低端市場，代表着中國高端電動汽車市場巨大的增長空間。”
The team said NIO has built its core competitive advantage by focusing on customer experience, and currently has more than 60 percent of user-recommended transactions.
該團隊表示，NIO通過專注於客户體驗建立了核心競爭優勢，目前擁有超過60%的用户推薦交易。
NIO ranks first in the number of patents and R&D investment in China's new car makers, and the newly released ET7 will adopt the latest technologies such as AQUILA super-sensitive system, ADAM supercomputing platform and self-driving platform, with leading intelligent technologies, the team said.
該團隊表示，NIO在中國新車製造商的專利數量和研發投入方面排名第一，最新發布的ET7將採用Aquila超敏感系統、Adam超算平台和自動駕駛平台等最新技術，擁有領先的智能技術。
The company's new business model of BaaS and battery swap opens up room for growth by improving the vehicle owner's refueling experience and reducing the cost of first-time car purchases, CITIC Securities said.
中信股份證券稱，該公司BaaS和電池更換的新業務模式通過改善車主的加油體驗和降低首次購車成本，打開了增長空間。
The team mentioned that it expects NIO's hardware to reach a steady-state gross margin of 25 percent as new models of its NT2.0 platform are launched and scale advantages emerge.
該團隊提到，隨着NT2.0平台新型號的推出和規模優勢的出現，預計NIO的硬件將達到25%的穩定毛利率。
In the long run, NIO will be able to continue to reduce costs and control expenses, the team said, adding that it is bullish on its balance between building the ultimate service system and controlling expenses.
該團隊表示，從長遠來看，NIO將能夠繼續降低成本和控制支出，並補充説，它看好自己在構建終極服務體系和控制支出之間的平衡。
In the second quarter of 2021, NIO Pilot's take rate has exceeded 80%, and with ET7 adopting the NAD subscription fee model going forward, software revenue is expected to become an important profit source for the company, CITIC Securities said.
中信股份證券表示，2021年第二季度，NIO Pilot的使用率已超過80%，隨着ET7採用NAD訂閲費模式的推進，軟件收入有望成為該公司重要的利潤來源。
The team expects NIO to sell 97,000, 167,000 and 271,000 vehicles in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, and to reach 600,000 vehicles in 2025, with a market share of about 6.6 percent in China.
該團隊預計，NIO在2021年、2022年和2023年分別售出9.7萬輛、16.7萬輛和27.1萬輛汽車，2025年將達到60萬輛，在中國的市場份額約為6.6%。
They expect NIO's revenue to be RMB 32.68 billion, RMB 59.82 billion and RMB 99.77 billion, respectively, and net income to be -RMB 6.78 billion, -RMB 1.68 billion and RMB 2.32 billion, respectively, from 2021-2023.
他們預計，從2021-2023年，NIO的收入分別為326.8億元人民幣、598.2億元人民幣和997.7億元人民幣，淨收入分別為-67.8億元人民幣、-16.8億元人民幣和23.2億元人民幣。
Provided there are no drastic changes in macro liquidity, a valuation range of 5-10x PS for China's new car makers in the coming year would be a reasonable range, the team said.
該團隊表示，如果宏觀流動性沒有劇烈變化，未來一年中國新車製造商的估值區間為5-10倍PS將是一個合理區間。
CITIC Securities said NIO is valued at 8x PS based on its 2022 revenue forecast of RMB 59.8 billion, considering it has the highest win rate in brand premiumization and a solid position among local premium brands.
中信股份證券表示，考慮到NIO在品牌精品化方面的獲勝率和在本土高端品牌中的穩固地位，基於其2022年收入預測598億元人民幣，NIO的估值為每股8倍。
In a report released earlier this month, Industrial Securities analyst Yu Xiaoli said that with the start of NIO's new vehicle cycle based on a new platform and new production capacity in 2022, its deliveries are expected to reach new levels and profitability is expected to improve significantly.
興業證券(Industrial Securities)分析師於曉麗在本月早些時候發佈的一份報告中表示，隨着2022年NIO基於新平台和新產能的新車週期的開始，其交貨量預計將達到新的水平，盈利能力有望顯著改善。
Yu expects NIO to achieve new vehicle sales of 89,000, 163,000, 289,000, 412,000 and 579,000 units from 2021 to 2025, respectively, with sales revenue of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 65.24 billion, RMB 111.13 billion, RMB 149.53 billion and RMB 196.83 billion.
俞敏洪預計，從2021年到2025年，NIO將分別實現8.9萬輛、16.3萬輛、28.9萬輛、41.2萬輛和57.9萬輛的新車銷量，銷售收入分別為353.8億元、652.4億元、1111.3億元、1495.3億元和1968.3億元。
Yu has a Buy rating on the company and a price target of $49.50, corresponding to 8x PS in 2022.
Yu對該公司的評級為買入，目標價為49.50美元，相當於2022年的8倍每股收益。