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Five behavioral biases affecting investors

Five behavioral biases affecting investors

影響投資者的五種行為偏差
moomoo Courses ·  2022/01/12 14:52

Key takeaways

主要外賣

  • Behavioral finance is the study of psychological impacts on investors's behaviors

  • Different from traditional finance theory, behavioral finance emphasizes the role played by psychology in individual behaviors

  • Five most common behavioral biases: loss aversion, anchoring bias, herd instinct, overconfidence bias, and confirmation bias

  • 行為金融學是研究心理對投資者行為影響的學科

  • 與傳統金融理論不同,行為金融學強調心理學在個體行為中的作用。

  • 五種最常見的行為偏差:損失厭惡、錨定偏差、羊羣本能、過度自信偏差和確認偏差

Understanding behavioral finance

理解行為金融學

Behavioral finance studies the psychological impacts on the behaviors of investors and the subsequent effects on the markets. It is based on some facts, such as investors are not always rational, their self-control is limited, and how they behave is subject to their own biases.

行為金融學研究心理對投資者行為的影響及其對市場的影響。它是基於一些事實,比如投資者並不總是理性的,他們的自我控制是有限的,他們的行為受到他們自己的偏見的影響。

To understand behavioral finance, we first need to understand traditional finance theory. Traditional finance theory is comprised of three core assumptions:

要理解行為金融學,首先需要理解傳統金融學理論。傳統金融理論由三個核心假設組成:

  1.  Individuals have complete self-control.

  2.  Individuals understand all available data before making decisions.

  3.  Individuals are always consistent in their decision-making.

  1. 每個人都有完全的自制力。

  2. 個人在做出決定之前瞭解所有可用的數據。

  3. 個人的決策總是始終如一的。

In a nutshell, traditional finance theory states that individuals always make rational decisions solely based on objective facts available.

簡而言之,傳統的金融理論認為,個人總是完全根據可獲得的客觀事實做出理性的決定。

However, irrationality is built into human nature. In reality:

然而,非理性是人性中的一部分。在現實中:

  1.  We don't always have self-control.

  2.  We don't always have time to understand all the data before making a decision.

  3.  We are not always consistent in terms of decision-making.

  1. 我們並不總是有自制力。

  2. 在做出決定之前,我們並不總是有時間瞭解所有的數據。

  3. 我們在決策方面並不總是一致的。

Behavioral finance is different from traditional finance theory in that it emphasizes the role played by psychology in individual behaviors.

行為金融學與傳統金融理論的不同之處在於它強調心理學在個體行為中的作用。

According to behavioral finance, investors are vulnerable to making sub-optimal decisions due to psychological influences that complicate our decision-making.

根據行為金融學,由於心理影響,投資者很容易做出次優決策,這會使我們的決策變得複雜。

By understanding the different psychological responses to our emotions, we attempt to limit the effect of emotion on our investing decision-making.

通過了解情緒的不同心理反應,我們試圖限制情緒對我們投資決策的影響。

Five behavioral biases affecting investors

影響投資者的五種行為偏差

Here, we highlight five prominent behavioral biases common among investors. In particular, we look at loss aversion, anchoring bias, herd instinct, overconfidence bias, and confirmation bias.

在這裏,我們重點介紹了投資者普遍存在的五種突出的行為偏差。尤其是,我們關注的是損失厭惡、錨定偏差、羊羣本能、過度自信偏差和確認偏差。

  • Loss aversion

    Loss aversion occurs when investors care more about losses than gains. As a result, some investors might want a higher payout to compensate for losses. If the high payout isn't likely, they might try to avoid losses altogether even if the investment's risk is acceptable from a rational investor's standpoint. In investing, loss aversion can lead to the so-called disposition effect when investors sell their winners and hang onto their losers. Investors do this because they want quick gains. But when an investment is losing money, many of them would choose to hold onto it because they want to get back to their initial price.

  • Anchoring bias 

    It means some investors tend to be over-reliant on an arbitrary benchmark such as a purchase price or sticker price. Market participants with an anchoring bias tend to hold investments that have lost value because they have anchored their fair value estimate to the original purchasing price rather than to fundamentals. 

  • Herd instinct

    The term herd instinct refers to a phenomenon where people join groups and follow the actions of others because they assume that other individuals have already done their research. 

    Herd instincts are common in all aspects of society, including the financial sector, where investors follow what they see other investors are doing rather than relying on their own analysis. Asset bubbles or market crashes by panic buying and panic selling are believed to manifest herd instinct at scale.

  • Overconfidence bias

    Overconfidence bias means being too confident in our abilities, making us take excessive risks. This bias is common in behavioral finance and can exert huge impact on capital markets. 

    Overconfidence has two components: being so confident in the quality of your information and in your ability to act on said information at the right time for maximum gain. 

  • Confirmation bias

    Confirmation bias is a term in cognitive psychology that describes how people naturally favor information that confirms their existing beliefs. Experts in behavioral finance have found that this fundamental principle applies notably to market participants. Investors search for information that confirms their existing opinions and ignore facts or data that contradict them. As a result, their own cognitive biases may reduce the value of their decisions.

  • 損失厭惡

    當投資者更關心損失而不是收益時,就會出現厭惡損失的情緒。因此,一些投資者可能希望獲得更高的賠付,以彌補損失。如果不太可能獲得高額回報,他們可能會試圖完全避免損失,即使從理性投資者的角度來看,投資的風險是可以接受的。在投資中,損失厭惡可能導致所謂的處置效應,即投資者拋售他們的贏家,並繼續持有他們的輸家。投資者這麼做是因為他們想要快速獲利。但當一項投資虧損時,他們中的許多人會選擇持有它,因為他們想回到最初的價格。

  • 錨定偏差

    這意味着一些投資者傾向於過度依賴一個武斷的基準,如收購價或標價。有錨定傾向的市場參與者傾向於持有失去價值的投資,因為他們將公允價值估計錨定在原始購買價格,而不是基本面。

  • 羊羣本能

    “羊羣本能”一詞指的是一種現象,即人們加入團體,跟隨他人的行動,因為他們認為其他人已經做了他們的研究。

    羊羣本能在社會的各個方面都很常見,包括金融行業,那裏的投資者跟蹤他們看到的其他投資者正在做的事情,而不是依賴自己的分析。資產泡沫或恐慌性購買和恐慌性拋售導致的市場崩盤被認為是大規模的羊羣本能。

  • 過度自信偏差

    過度自信偏向意味着對自己的能力過於自信,使我們承擔過度的風險。這種偏差在行為金融學中很常見,會對資本市場產生巨大影響。

    過度自信有兩個組成部分:對你的信息質量充滿信心,並相信你有能力在正確的時間根據這些信息採取行動,以獲得最大收益。

  • 確認偏差

    確認偏差是認知心理學中的一個術語,描述了人們如何自然地偏愛確認其現有信念的信息。行為金融學專家發現,這一基本原則尤其適用於市場參與者。投資者尋找證實他們現有觀點的信息,而忽略與他們相矛盾的事實或數據。因此,他們自己的認知偏差可能會降低他們決策的價值。

For more investment knowledge and trends, welcome to Courses in the Community.

欲瞭解更多投資知識和趨勢,歡迎訪問課程在社區裏。

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