晴瓦林
:
I think 2025 isn't a bullish year to invest in; the recession from the S&P 500 P/E bubble is just around the corner. Its mean reversion std dev is over 2 compared to the last 5 years too. I just wait for the earnings report to pop them off. And Buffett is holding more percentage of cash equivalents than ever, that signals to me how overvalued the blue-chips it is. But... I'll try to find a great deal in 2025 regardless of how it goes; I'm largely prepared to protect my wealth in a gold ETF with high sharpe ratio and money market funds; I don't intend to invest in bonds because just one recession could undo 3 years of my returns in risky investments. I'm excited for the fashion, art, funeral, and M&E engineering service industry. Because I can find great deals in these industries where most people consider that they're either commodities or utility businesses with erratic earnings. Or, businesses that are not as exciting as AI. These industries will go into the moon for me. But, I managed to find the much more stable one among the sea. I'll unload my money into AI or Altcoins only if the next recession passes. Because I believe that they can still improve the transformer architecture in LLMs. AI techs are useful for creativity activities cos how much hallucinations they had. But people are trying hard to make LLMs provide factual info when it's very quantized. I don't see this will improve in any time soon without raising compute power. Diffusers still struggling to draw hands & text; they'll upgrade to include transformer. Altcoins improves encryption faster than Bitcoin cos they can restart their projects with lattice-based encryptions instead of updating it. SHA-256 will be cracked by a quantum computer, which uses quantum algos. AI will run on quantums too. Bitcoin lags behind SHA-3; I don't trust it. Price/Earnings Analysis Indicates Stock Market is Overvalued S&P500 Mean Reversion Analysis Suggests Stock Market is Overvalued
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