ASX200が過去最高値に急騰：誰が主導しているのか？次は何か？

Moreover, China announced a basket of stimulus measures that exceeded expectations at the end of September, particularly in terms of monetary policy. The significantly positive policy shift has ignited confidence and optimism in the recovery of the Chinese economy, subsequently driving up mining and resource stocks in the Australian market. Although the market felt that the lack of specific details on the scale of fiscal stimulus during the recent press conference by the Chinese Ministry of Finance led to a slight retreat in mining stocks, statements from top officials have indicated that other counter-cyclical measures and policy tools are still under consideration. The central government also has considerable room for debt issuance and deficit expansion. This suggests that the overall scale of fiscal stimulus may be more anticipated than ever before, with the focus now shifting to the implementation of China's policy stimulus measures.

Vanguard's global economics and markets team has projected a modest full-year economic growth of around 1% and anticipates the unemployment rate to increase to approximately 4.6% by the end of this year, up from 4.2% in August. The market is eagerly awaiting the release of Australia's unemployment rate data scheduled for this week.

Regarding interest rate adjustments, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35% during its latest announcement on 24 September, a level that has been unchanged since the last rate hike in November 2023. Despite the gradual rise in inflation towards the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2% to 3%, the RBA remains firm in its stance, indicating that it will take some time for inflation to be consistently within the target range. Consequently, most economists believe that a rate cut may not materialize until February or April 2025. However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) stands out as one of the few institutions predicting the first rate cut by the RBA to occur in 2024. CBA stated, "All indicators we follow suggest that the disinflationary trend has gained momentum in the September quarter."