Russia is the leading palladium-producing country. In Russia, strategic stockpiles are state secrets. In the early 1990s, when the Berlin Wall fell, Russia’s need for revenues caused a tidal wave of strategic commodity sales, pushing palladium prices well below the $100 per ounce level. While there is no data, Russia’s increasing cash needs to fund the ongoing Ukraine war could have led to significant palladium destocking when the price reached the 2022 high. Russian selling has likely caused the decline in palladium prices, which is a mixed blessing for the metal’s future path of least resistance. If Russia has sold its strategic stockpiles, limited production and illiquidity in the futures market could lead to a significant price recovery over the coming months and years.
A scale-down buying approach
I favor a scale-down buying approach to the palladium market, leaving plenty of room to add on further declines. Illiquid markets can fall to illogical, unreasonable, and irrational prices that defy fundamental analysis during bearish trends. Therefore, leaving room on the downside and adding when downside spikes occur could be the optimal approach to palladium investing.
While physical bars and coins are the most direct investing route, the PALL ETF is a liquid alternative for market participants seeking palladium exposure."