Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:HYMC) shares have retraced a considerable 26% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 59% loss during that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Metals and Mining industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.1x, you may still consider Hycroft Mining Holding as a stock not worth researching with its 3.4x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

See our latest analysis for Hycroft Mining Holding

How Hycroft Mining Holding Has Been Performing

Recent times haven't been great for Hycroft Mining Holding as its revenue has been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal revenue performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Hycroft Mining Holding's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 71%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 38% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 57% during the coming year according to the only analyst following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 3.1%, which paints a poor picture.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Hycroft Mining Holding's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, Hycroft Mining Holding's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Hycroft Mining Holding currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S for a company whose revenues are forecast to decline. In cases like this where we see revenue decline on the horizon, we suspect the share price is at risk of following suit, bringing back the high P/S into the realms of suitability. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Hycroft Mining Holding you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.