The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (SGX:E5H) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Golden Agri-Resources

What Is Golden Agri-Resources's Debt?

As you can see below, Golden Agri-Resources had US$3.05b of debt, at June 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has US$1.20b in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.85b.

A Look At Golden Agri-Resources' Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Golden Agri-Resources had liabilities of US$2.69b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.82b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.20b and US$659.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$2.65b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$2.23b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

With net debt sitting at just 1.2 times EBITDA, Golden Agri-Resources is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 7.2 times the interest expense over the last year. Another good sign is that Golden Agri-Resources has been able to increase its EBIT by 23% in twelve months, making it easier to pay down debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Golden Agri-Resources's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Golden Agri-Resources produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 62% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Golden Agri-Resources was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at staying on top of its total liabilities as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Golden Agri-Resources's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Golden Agri-Resources is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.