Lumina Group Limited (HKG:1162) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 36%.
After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Commercial Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.5x, you may consider Lumina Group as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.4x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
Check out our latest analysis for Lumina Group
How Lumina Group Has Been Performing
We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Lumina Group's revenue has been unimpressive. Perhaps the market believes that revenue growth will improve markedly over current levels, inflating the P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Lumina Group's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 29% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 14% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that Lumina Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Lumina Group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Lumina Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Lumina Group (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If you're unsure about the strength of Lumina Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
