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Investors More Bullish on PennyMac Financial Services (NYSE:PFSI) This Week as Stock Climbs 3.1%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Five Years

株価が3.1%上昇し、過去5年間の利益トレンドが下降傾向にあるにもかかわらず、PennyMac Financial Services(NYSE:PFSI)に対して投資家の方が強気になっています。

Simply Wall St ·  2023/12/06 12:17

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. One great example is PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE:PFSI) which saw its share price drive 269% higher over five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 15% gain in the last three months.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for PennyMac Financial Services

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, PennyMac Financial Services actually saw its EPS drop 0.8% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 1.0% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. The revenue growth of 0.7% per year hardly seems impressive. So why is the share price up? It's not immediately obvious to us, but a closer look at the company's progress over time might yield answers.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:PFSI Earnings and Revenue Growth December 6th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, PennyMac Financial Services' TSR for the last 5 years was 291%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that PennyMac Financial Services shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 39% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 31% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with PennyMac Financial Services (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

これらの内容は、情報提供及び投資家教育のためのものであり、いかなる個別株や投資方法を推奨するものではありません。 更に詳しい情報
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