Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (NYSE:TDS) share price is up 79% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 15% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 3.7% in three years.
While the stock has fallen 6.7% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
View our latest analysis for Telephone and Data Systems
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the last twelve months Telephone and Data Systems went from profitable to unprofitable. While this may prove temporary, we'd consider it a negative, so we would not have expected to see the share price up. It may be that the company has done well on other metrics.
We haven't seen Telephone and Data Systems increase dividend payments yet, so the yield probably hasn't helped drive the share higher. Revenue actually dropped 4.1% over last year. It's fair to say we're a little surprised to see the share price up, and that makes us cautious.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Telephone and Data Systems the TSR over the last 1 year was 92%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Telephone and Data Systems shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 92% over one year. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 6% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Telephone and Data Systems you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
インデックスファンドへの受動的な投資は、全体的な市場とほぼ同等の収益を生み出すことができます。ただし、適切な個別株式を選べば、それ以上の収益を得ることができます。たとえば、Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (NYSE:TDS) の株価は過去1年間で79%上昇し、配当を除く市場収益率の約15%を明らかに上回っています。もし長期的なアウトパフォーマンスを維持できれば、投資家は非常にうまくやっていくことでしょう!一方、長期的な株主はつらい時期を過ごしています。過去3年間で株価は3.7%下落しています。
過去12か月間に至って、Telephone and Data Systems は利益から利益が出なくなりました。これは一時的なものである可能性がありますが、私たちはこれを否定的に考えています。したがって、株価が上昇するとは予想していませんでした。会社は他のメトリクスでうまくやっている可能性があります。
Telephone and Data Systems は配当金を増やしていないため、配当利回りは株価を押し上げるのに役立っていないと思われます。売上高は前年比で4.1%減少しました。株価が上昇したことには少し驚いていますが、そのことが私たちを慎重にさせています。
株価のリターンを測定するだけでなく、投資家は割引後の資本調達や分割などの計算された価値と現金配当(受け取った配当が再投資されたとして)の価値を考慮する必要があります。配当金を支払う株式に対しては、TSRがより完全な株式リターンの計算を提供します。Telephone and Data Systems の過去1年間のTSRは92%であり、上述の株価リターンよりも良好です。そして、配当金支払いがその差異を大きく説明していることは明白です!
別の視点
Telephone and Data Systems の株主は、1年間で総報酬率が92%となりました。それには配当金も含まれます。対照的に、5年間の年率平均TSRは年率6%の損失であり、最近の株価パフォーマンスとは非常に不利に比較されます。これは私たちを少し懸念させますが、ビジネスが好転したかもしれないという可能性があります。市場状況が株価に与える異なる影響を考慮する価値は十分にあるが、それ以上に重要な要因があります。警告サインがある3つの点を見つけました、そして、2つの点を無視するわけにはいかない。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。