These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. The Agricultural Bank of China Limited (HKG:1288) stock price is down 17% over five years, but the total shareholder return is 20% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 5.4%.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for Agricultural Bank of China

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, Agricultural Bank of China actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 3.6% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

With EPS gaining and a declining share price, one would suggest the market is cooling on its view of the company. That said, if EPS continues to increase, it seems very likely the share price will get a boost, in the long term.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

This free interactive report on Agricultural Bank of China's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Agricultural Bank of China the TSR over the last 5 years was 20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Agricultural Bank of China shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 14% over one year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 4% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Before forming an opinion on Agricultural Bank of China you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.