There's been a notable change in appetite for MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 19% to US$28.01. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.04, some 91% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$527m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for MarineMax

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MarineMax's nine analysts is for revenues of US$2.47b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 21% to US$3.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.48 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.1% to US$37.14, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic MarineMax analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$29.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MarineMax's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MarineMax is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MarineMax. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MarineMax's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MarineMax's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MarineMax going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with MarineMax (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.