Jilin Joinature Polymer Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688716) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 30% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 26x, you may still consider Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 70.7x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd?
Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 18%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 40% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 42% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.
The Final Word
Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Jilin Joinature PolymerLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.