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Investors Don't See Light At End Of Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd's (SZSE:000419) Tunnel And Push Stock Down 31%

投資家は長沙通城ホールディングス(SZSE:000419)のトンネルの終わりに光を見ておらず、株価を31%下げています。

Simply Wall St ·  02/05 17:08

The Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd (SZSE:000419) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 31%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 35% share price drop.

Following the heavy fall in price, Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.6x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 27x and even P/E's above 48x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:000419 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry February 5th 2024
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Any Growth For Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 39%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 48% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we are not surprised that Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Final Word

The softening of Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd's shares means its P/E is now sitting at a pretty low level. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Changsha Tongcheng HoldingsLtd (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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