Whirlpool China Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600983) shares have had a horrible month, losing 25% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 10% in that time.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Whirlpool China's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Consumer Durables industry is similar at about 1.7x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
How Has Whirlpool China Performed Recently?
For example, consider that Whirlpool China's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Whirlpool China will help you shine a light on its historical performance.How Is Whirlpool China's Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Whirlpool China's to be considered reasonable.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 15%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 18% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 12% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Whirlpool China is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Whirlpool China's P/S?
Following Whirlpool China's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We find it unexpected that Whirlpool China trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Whirlpool China you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Whirlpool China, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.