The Chongqing Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited (SHSE:600939) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 35% in that time.
Although its price has dipped substantially, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 24x, you may still consider Chongqing Construction Engineering Group as a stock to avoid entirely with its 76.9x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For example, consider that Chongqing Construction Engineering Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Chongqing Construction Engineering Group's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 69%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 68% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 42% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's alarming that Chongqing Construction Engineering Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Chongqing Construction Engineering Group's P/E?
Even after such a strong price drop, Chongqing Construction Engineering Group's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Chongqing Construction Engineering Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Chongqing Construction Engineering Group (2 are potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.