One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But it can difficult to make money in a declining market. The China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited (SHSE:600764) is down 31% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -29% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 31% over the last three years. And over the last year the share price fell 27%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 25% in a month. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 15% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for China Marine Information Electronics isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
China Marine Information Electronics saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 14% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 12% per year. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for China Marine Information Electronics the TSR over the last 3 years was -29%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
China Marine Information Electronics shareholders are down 26% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -28%. So last year was actually even worse than the last five years, which cost shareholders 3% per year. Weak performance over the long term usually destroys market confidence in a stock, but bargain hunters may want to take a closer look for signs of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for China Marine Information Electronics you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.