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There's Reason For Concern Over Ourpalm Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300315) Massive 32% Price Jump

Ourpalm Co., Ltd.(SZSE:300315)の株価が32%急騰した理由について懸念がある

Simply Wall St ·  03/04 17:14

Ourpalm Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300315) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 56% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, Ourpalm may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 16.3x, since almost half of all companies in the Entertainment industry in China have P/S ratios under 6.8x and even P/S lower than 3x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300315 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 4th 2024

How Ourpalm Has Been Performing

Ourpalm hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this poor revenue performance will turn the corner. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Ourpalm will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Ourpalm's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 22%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 45% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 4.7% over the next year. With the industry predicted to deliver 35% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Ourpalm's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Ourpalm's P/S?

Shares in Ourpalm have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've concluded that Ourpalm currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its forecast growth is lower than the wider industry. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Ourpalm is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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