Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited (SZSE:002488) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is Zhejiang Jingu's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Zhejiang Jingu had CN¥2.73b of debt, up from CN¥1.99b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥450.6m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥2.28b.
How Healthy Is Zhejiang Jingu's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhejiang Jingu had liabilities of CN¥1.87b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.83b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥450.6m and CN¥650.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.59b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Zhejiang Jingu has a market capitalization of CN¥5.61b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Zhejiang Jingu will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Over 12 months, Zhejiang Jingu reported revenue of CN¥3.3b, which is a gain of 5.8%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.
Caveat Emptor
Over the last twelve months Zhejiang Jingu produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Indeed, it lost CN¥179m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. Another cause for caution is that is bled CN¥418m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Zhejiang Jingu (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
