As you might know, Crystal International Group Limited (HKG:2232) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.6% short of analyst estimates at US$2.2b, and statutory earnings of US$0.057 per share missed forecasts by 4.5%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Crystal International Group's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.47b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 19% to US$0.068. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.067 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 10% to HK$4.40. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Crystal International Group at HK$7.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$3.60. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Crystal International Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 13% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.6% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.8% annually. Not only are Crystal International Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Crystal International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Crystal International Group you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
