Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002889) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 30%.
Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in China, where the median P/E ratio is around 31x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
For instance, Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 26%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 14% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 39% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management's P/E is also back up to the market median. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.