share_log

Investors More Bullish on Qingdao Copton Technology (SHSE:603798) This Week as Stock Rallies 17%, Despite Earnings Trending Downwards Over Past Three Years

今週、株価が17%上昇し、過去3年間の収益が下がっているにもかかわらず、投資家は青島科拓技術株式会社(SHSE:603798)に対してより強気になっています。

Simply Wall St ·  04/03 21:01

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Qingdao Copton Technology Company Limited (SHSE:603798) shareholders have seen the share price rise 56% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (20%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 32% in the last year , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Qingdao Copton Technology investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years of share price growth, Qingdao Copton Technology actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 18% per year.

So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. The revenue drop of 1.9% is as underwhelming as some politicians. What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603798 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 4th 2024

This free interactive report on Qingdao Copton Technology's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Qingdao Copton Technology, it has a TSR of 62% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Qingdao Copton Technology shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 32% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 4% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Qingdao Copton Technology .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

これらの内容は、情報提供及び投資家教育のためのものであり、いかなる個別株や投資方法を推奨するものではありません。 更に詳しい情報
    コメントする