Even though Academy of Environmental Planning and Design, Co.,Ltd. Nanjing University (SZSE:300864) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.
A Closer Look At Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University has an accrual ratio of 1.01 for the year to December 2023. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥125m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥154.4m. Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. One positive for Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥20m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
Our Take On Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University's Profit Performance
Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Academy of Environmental Planning and DesignLtd. Nanjing University.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
