China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd (SHSE:600125) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. China Railway Tielong Container Logistics beat revenue expectations by 6.3%, at CN¥15b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥0.36, some 4.8% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering China Railway Tielong Container Logistics are now predicting revenues of CN¥15.2b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 8.5% to CN¥0.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥14.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.42 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a an okay to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target was unchanged at CN¥6.46, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic China Railway Tielong Container Logistics analyst has a price target of CN¥6.99 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥6.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that China Railway Tielong Container Logistics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.6% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.6% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.5% annually for the foreseeable future. Although China Railway Tielong Container Logistics' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Railway Tielong Container Logistics. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥6.46, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for China Railway Tielong Container Logistics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Railway Tielong Container Logistics you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
