In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600851), since the last five years saw the share price fall 33%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 8.7% over the last week. We would posit that the recently released financial results have driven this rise, so you might want to check the latest numbers in our full company report.
On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥519m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
While the share price declined over five years, Shanghai Haixin Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 4.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
We don't think that the 0.8% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. Revenue is actually up 7.0% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
If you are thinking of buying or selling Shanghai Haixin Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Shanghai Haixin Group shares lost 12% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 15%. Given the total loss of 6% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Shanghai Haixin Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
We will like Shanghai Haixin Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
